{"dataset":"humanoid-supply-chain","version":1,"title":"Humanoid supply chain","subtitle":"What a robot is actually made of","lede":"Three tiers of it: the component makers who sell to every assembler, the critical-minerals names they get confused with, and the magnet layer in between. Priced, fact-checked, and tested to see which of them actually move together.","compiled":"2026-09-27","compiledLabel":"27 Sep 2026","tracked":"18 names, 3 tiers","about":{"summary":"A three-tier watchlist of the humanoid robotics supply chain: the component makers who sell to every assembler, the rare-earth and critical-minerals names they get confused with, and the magnet layer in between. Every listed name is priced, and the two groups are correlation-tested against each other and against the REMX rare-earth ETF.","notAdvice":"A research snapshot for personal tracking, assembled from public filings, company releases and press reporting. Not investment advice, and it does not make recommendations.","prices":"Delayed closes, not live quotes. Each price is its venue’s last completed session in the listing’s own local currency, so the percentage moves carry no currency translation. Venues close at different times, so Tokyo is usually one session ahead of Xetra and New York. The per-venue as-of dates are stated in `method`.","staleness":"The whole dataset is as of `compiled`. It is rebuilt whenever the underlying document changes, which is most weekday mornings, so check that date before quoting a figure as current.","correlations":"Weekly return correlations over the last 104 completed ISO weeks, bucketed by exchange-local date so Tokyo, Xetra and New York weeks line up. `remx` is against the rare-earth ETF, `roboticsBasket` against an equal-weighted basket of the six tier-one names. Correlation is co-movement, not causation.","tickers":"Tickers are primary listings. A null ticker means the company is not directly investable: `access` says how you would own it, if at all, and a price on such a row belongs to the parent named in `pricedVia`.","counts":"The masthead counts a name once per tier it appears on; `counts.companies` counts distinct companies, which is why the two differ by the names carried on two tiers."},"counts":{"companies":17,"listed":13,"tierOne":6,"tierTwo":5,"tierThree":7,"claimsChecked":28},"basketToRemxCorrelation":null,"companies":[{"id":"harmonic-drive-systems","name":"Harmonic Drive Systems","tier":1,"tierLabel":"Tier one — humanoid component suppliers","ticker":"6324.T","tickerNote":"ADR HSYDF","listed":true,"role":"Strain wave gears","price":{"display":"¥6,300","value":6300,"currency":"JPY"},"changes":{"day":-0.8,"month":9.4,"ytd":66.7,"year":123.3,"vs52WeekHigh":-31.1},"correlations":{"remx":0.19,"roboticsBasket":0.82},"position":"20–40 units per humanoid","facts":[{"label":"Share","value":"~85%"},{"label":"FY3/26 rev","value":"¥59.6bn"},{"label":"Q1 orders","value":"+55.7%"},{"label":"FY3/27e op","value":"¥8.5bn"}],"watch":"Quarterly humanoid order disclosure. This is the single number that justifies the multiple, and nothing has been published since the 7 August guidance upgrade, which is already priced. The tape has now run eleven sessions from the 4 September close of ¥5,730: +5.5%, +4.2%, −4.5%, +2.1%, +2.7%, −3.2%, +0.7%, +0.3%, +2.1%, 0.0%, then +3.9% to ¥6,200 on the Bank of Japan's rate decision. Tokyo then shut for three sessions, and the twelfth came on the reopen: +2.4% to ¥6,350 on 24 September, its highest close since 17 August and 10.8% above where the run started. The thirteenth ended it, and quietly: −0.8% to ¥6,300 on 25 September, on a session the Nikkei rose 1.30% — so the stock gave up two points of relative ground without a word from the company, having gained two or three the day before on the same silence. None of the run came from the order book. Two figures in this row have moved a long way on the calendar rather than on the tape, and both need reading carefully. The month reads +9.4% against +0.2% a fortnight ago, because the 30-day base has rolled onto 26 August's ¥5,760, from the ¥5,960 of 18 August. And the twelve-month column fell from +116.9% to +95.9% on 18 September, because 18 September 2025's +15.0% day dropped out of the window — then jumped to +123.0% on 24 September, twenty-seven points on a 2.4% session, because a three-day holiday rolls the base six calendar days in one step, onto 24 September 2025's ¥2,847, ten per cent below the ¥3,165 it replaced. It reads +123.3% now, and the base is back to moving one session at a time. The one figure no base can flatter is the drawdown, which narrowed for three runs — 34.8%, 32.2%, 30.6% — and has widened again with the price, to 31.1%.","notes":["The closest thing to a monopoly on the list. Strain wave gears are the compact, zero-backlash gearboxes inside precision joints, and there is no substitute at volume. The ~85% share claim is consistent with how the market is generally described, and the humanoid order book is real but still small: roughly ¥2.5bn of humanoid-related orders guided for FY3/26, which management has suggested could double or triple in FY3/27.","The catch is that today's profit does not come from humanoids. FY3/26 landed at ¥59.6bn revenue (+7.0%) with operating profit down 94.4% year on year. The recovery is now visible, though: April–June revenue of ¥16.68bn (+23.6%) and operating profit of ¥1.84bn against ¥122m a year earlier, on consolidated orders of ¥24.13bn (+55.7%) — roughly ¥3bn of which was a one-off North American surgical-robot order. On 7 August the company lifted FY3/27 guidance to ¥74.5bn revenue and ¥8.5bn operating profit, from ¥68bn and ¥6.2bn. The stock is still priced on that forecast rather than on trailing numbers."]},{"id":"nabtesco","name":"Nabtesco","tier":1,"tierLabel":"Tier one — humanoid component suppliers","ticker":"6268.T","tickerNote":"ADR NCTKY","listed":true,"role":"Cycloidal RV reducers","price":{"display":"¥4,792","value":4792,"currency":"JPY"},"changes":{"day":0.7,"month":4.2,"ytd":27.9,"year":41.1,"vs52WeekHigh":-21.6},"correlations":{"remx":0.25,"roboticsBasket":0.76},"position":"Legs, load-bearing axes","facts":[{"label":"Share","value":"~60%"},{"label":"FY25 rev","value":"¥307.9bn"},{"label":"Op profit","value":"+60.3%"},{"label":"FY26e op","value":"+33.6%"}],"watch":"Utilisation of the doubled capacity. Idle new capacity turns a margin story into a fixed-cost problem quickly. It has been the most volatile name on the tier, and has now gone quiet: −5.7% on 2 September, then +1.6%, +1.4% and +3.6%, then −6.1% on 8 September and +4.5% on 9 September — and since then −0.7%, −1.3%, −0.3% and +0.2% — four sessions inside 1.5% after a fortnight of violent ones — before +2.6% to ¥4,551 on 16 September, its best session since 9 September, then +0.7% to ¥4,581 and +0.8% to ¥4,619 on 18 September — three gains running — and, after the three-day holiday, a fourth: +3.0% to ¥4,759 on 24 September, its best session since 9 September. A fifth followed, +0.7% to ¥4,792 on 25 September, its highest close since 17 August — though on a day the Nikkei added 1.30%, so it lagged the index by six tenths even while making the high. Five gains running is the longest streak this name has put together in the period this page has tracked, and none of it is company news. It sits 21.6% below its 52-week high, the tightest on the tier apart from Nidec, and 4.2% higher over a month, where a fortnight ago that figure was 3.2% lower. Read that reversal the same way as Harmonic's: the 30-day base has rolled onto ¥4,599, and nothing the company said moved either number.","notes":["The heavy-duty counterpart: cycloidal RV reducers for medium-to-large joints, with roughly 60% global share. Of the six, this is the one where the cited financials check out cleanly — FY2025 delivered ¥307.9bn revenue (+9.8%) and ¥20.7bn operating profit (+60.3%), with FY2026 guided to ¥327bn and ¥27.7bn.","Crucially, Nabtesco is committing capital ahead of the demand: it is doubling RV-reducer capacity into 2026 and bought Slovak cycloidal maker Spinea in 2023. That is a company acting on the thesis, not just narrating it."]},{"id":"yaskawa-electric","name":"Yaskawa Electric","tier":1,"tierLabel":"Tier one — humanoid component suppliers","ticker":"6506.T","tickerNote":"ADR YASKY","listed":true,"role":"Servo motors & controllers","price":{"display":"¥4,480","value":4480,"currency":"JPY"},"changes":{"day":-0.6,"month":-9.5,"ytd":-5.8,"year":41,"vs52WeekHigh":-43.4},"correlations":{"remx":0.28,"roboticsBasket":0.83},"position":"Servo + drive + control","facts":[{"label":"FY2/26 op","value":"−5%"},{"label":"FY2/27e rev","value":"¥580bn"},{"label":"FY2/27e net","value":"+33%"},{"label":"Off high","value":"−43.4%"}],"watch":"First-half progress against that +33% net profit guide. It is a forecast-driven multiple with a recent record of missing.","notes":["One of very few firms that can already supply precision motion at industrial scale, now pointed at humanoids: it acquired 100% of Tokyo Robotics, whose whole-body torque sensing and impedance control fill a genuine capability gap, and ships MOTOMAN Next with NVIDIA GPUs for autonomous control.","But the profit claim in the source post is backwards. For the fiscal year ended February 2026, revenue edged up while operating profit fell more than 5%, with pre-tax and net profit down harder. The growth is in the forecast — FY2/27 guidance of ¥580bn revenue (+7%) and ¥47bn net profit (+33%). Up 41.0% over twelve months but 43.4% below its high — still the widest gap on the list — it is the clearest example here of a stock priced on guidance rather than results. Its year-to-date return turned negative on 1 September and kept going: a 4.4% fall on 8 September wiped out three modest up sessions, a 1.6% loss on 10 September took it below its April low, a further 3.0% on 11 September took it to ¥4,301, then two yen lower on 14 September and three yen lower again on 15 September — three consecutive closes at the weakest since 3 April, and the manner of them was the point: not a capitulation but a slow bleed of two and three yen a session while the rest of the tier drifted higher. That run ended on 16 September, +1.5% to ¥4,360, its first gain in five sessions — then lasted exactly one day, −1.4% to ¥4,299 on 17 September, before the rate decision took it +2.0% to ¥4,383 on 18 September, and the reopen after the three-day holiday added +2.8% to ¥4,507 on 24 September, its highest close since 7 September. Then it gave a little back, −0.6% to ¥4,480 on 25 September — and on that session the Nikkei rose 1.30%, so this was the widest relative loss of the six Tokyo names here, nearly two points behind the index. It is 9.5% lower in a month, still the steepest on the tier, 43.4% below its high, and its year-to-date return has slipped back to −5.8%. Note what did not change: a bounce off the weakest closes since 3 April is not the first-half number, and the guidance it is priced on does not get tested until that arrives."]},{"id":"nidec","name":"Nidec","tier":1,"tierLabel":"Tier one — humanoid component suppliers","ticker":"6594.T","tickerNote":"ADR NJDCY (stale)","listed":true,"role":"Motors & integrated actuators","price":{"display":"¥2,840","value":2840,"currency":"JPY"},"changes":{"day":0.6,"month":9.7,"ytd":33.2,"year":6.7,"vs52WeekHigh":-3.4},"correlations":{"remx":0.32,"roboticsBasket":0.62},"position":"6-axis integrated motion","facts":[{"label":"Revenue","value":"~¥2.6tn"},{"label":"Accounts","value":"unrestated"},{"label":"Quality report","value":"published 4 Sep"},{"label":"1y","value":"+6.8%"}],"watch":"30 September 2026, and it is now three days out. The quality strand is closed; the accounting strand is not, and it has a hard date on it. Nidec obtained approval on 30 June to extend the filing deadline for its annual securities report for the year ended March 2026 from 30 June to 30 September — so the restatement the company has been working through since September 2025 is either filed inside three days or the extension itself becomes the story. The April–June quarter behind it is still missing too. Until both are current, position sizing here remains a governance decision rather than a robotics one. A third strand is now live alongside them: the 9 September derivative action over the 2022–23 buybacks and dividend, which turns on what the restated distributable amount actually is — so the filing due on 30 September is also the document that sizes that claim. On the closed strand, the verified count is worth carrying: the 4 September report found 844 cases of quality misconduct over about a decade — mostly changes to materials and processes without customer approval, alongside falsified tests and country-of-origin mislabelling — and Nidec states no individual matter has a material impact on its financial statements. Press reporting that attaches a ¥250bn write-down to that report is conflating it with the accounting strand; the claim audit now carries this. Note too that Nidec still shows the tightest drawdown on the whole page against its 52-week high by a wide margin, 3.4% against Aichi Steel's 8.3% — it widened on the reopen, when Nidec was the one Tokyo name here to fall as the exchange came back, −1.2% to ¥2,822 on 24 September against gains of 2.4–3.9% around it, and then narrowed again on 25 September, +0.6% to ¥2,840, within 3.4% of a 52-week high set at ¥2,941. A stock trading that close to its high is not the same thing as a stock that has recovered, on a company whose accounts for the year ended March 2026 do not yet exist. Its twelve-month return, meanwhile, has changed sign twice inside a week, and neither move came from the company. Nidec rose 4% on 12 September 2025, and that session rolling into the comparison cut the twelve-month return from +7.5% to +2.1% on a 1.3% price move. This page then forecast the next crossing to the day — on 16 September the base became 16 September 2025’s ¥2,671, and a +0.2% session took the twelve-month number below zero, to −0.9%. One day later the base rolled again, to 17 September 2025’s ¥2,691, and a +2.9% price move put it back above zero at +1.2%. Two sign changes, two sessions, one of them driven purely by which day fell out of the window. The next session was the clean control case: the base did not move — ¥2,691 on both 17 and 18 September 2025 — so a +4.8% price move took the figure to +6.1% and nothing else did. Same column, three consecutive readings, two mechanisms. The holiday then supplied a fourth: the base rolled six calendar days at once, off ¥2,691 onto 24 September 2025's ¥2,642, so a falling session left the twelve-month figure higher, at +6.8%. It is the cleanest illustration on this page of a return figure that moves because the calendar did — and a warning about reading any twelve-month column on a date when the base is volatile.","notes":["The world's largest electric motor maker, building integrated humanoid motion units that fold motor, gearbox and controller together — FLEXWAVE strain-wave reducers, KINEX cycloidal gearboxes and planetary systems shown at Automate 2026. The scale argument is real: roughly ¥2.6 trillion in annual revenue (about $17bn, not $2.6tn as the post's garbled phrasing implies).","This is the one name carrying a governance problem rather than just an execution problem, and on 4 September 2026 one half of it was finally published. Nidec disclosed the Investigation Committee's report on the quality strand, received on 2 September and released once confidentiality review was complete, together with its recurrence-prevention measures. The committee, established in May 2026, found a series of quality-related failures: 4M change-rule violations, falsification and fabrication of testing and inspection results, work outside approved inspection and manufacturing conditions, the use and shipment of substandard and unauthorised items, and breaches of record preparation and management rules, arising from an “unhealthy state” of excessive cost-reduction pressure, inefficient risk monitoring and inadequate quality-assurance resourcing. The decisive line for holders is financial: Nidec's evaluation of the individual matters found no material impact on its consolidated financial statements. Remediation gives quality managers authority to suspend shipments, revises reporting lines, adds permanent complaint boxes, puts every executive and employee through quality-compliance training and starts continuous quality audits; disciplinary action is promised but nobody is named. The stock rose 5.7% on the day and a further 7.7% on the Monday after it, to ¥2,812, before losing 3.2% to ¥2,722 and a further 4.8% to ¥2,591 — giving the whole post-report rally back by Wednesday — then taking most of it straight back with +5.6% to ¥2,737 on 10 September, the largest single gain anywhere on this page, and easing 1.7% to ¥2,691 on 11 September, a further 1.3% to ¥2,655 on 14 September, then 0.5% to ¥2,642, +0.2% to ¥2,646 on 16 September, +2.9% to ¥2,724 on 17 September, and +4.8% to ¥2,856 on 18 September on the Bank of Japan's hike — the largest single gain anywhere on this page in this period, and its highest close since 4 June. The report landed on 4 September with the stock up 5.7% that session; of the ten sessions since, seven moved more than 1.3% in one direction or the other — +7.7%, −3.2%, −4.8%, +5.6%, −1.7%, −1.3%, −0.5%, +0.2%, +2.9% and +4.8% — with a three-session lull in the middle that lasted exactly as long as it took the market to find a new reason. That reading rested on an empty disclosure record, and the record is not empty. On 10 September — the same session the stock rose 5.6%, the largest single gain anywhere on this page — Nidec disclosed that a shareholder had begun a derivative action against two former directors the day before. This page's line that Nidec had disclosed nothing at all since 4 September was accurate when written and stopped being accurate on 10 September; it was repeated for fifteen days after that, and the claim audit now carries it. The narrower statement that survives is that nothing has been disclosed on the filing strand since 4 September, and that the moves since have come from interpretation rather than information — including on the day the suit became public, which the tape did not mark at all. Everything else is still open — though it is worth being precise about what \"open\" means, because this page previously was not. The separate third-party committee on the accounting irregularities has finished: appointed in September 2025, it delivered a mid-term report on 27 February 2026 and its final report on 17 April 2026. What outlasts the inquiry is its consequence. Nidec is still correcting accounts back to the year ended March 2022, has not closed FY3/26, and has repeatedly postponed results — including the April–June quarter, delayed again on 5 Aug 2026. A tariff strand runs alongside: additional customs duties from declaration errors were estimated in March 2026 at US$69.7m, about ¥11.14bn, including interest. The quality strand covers changes to materials, processes and designs made without customer approval, mishandled inspection data and mislabelled production locations, and on 5 August an individual shareholder formally requested that the company pursue liability against current and former directors. A second, larger request followed: on 20 August multiple shareholders jointly demanded the same action under Article 847 of the Companies Act, disclosed the next day. Those were demands that the company sue, and they concern the quality and accounting conduct. What was filed on 9 September is a different instrument and the first claim in this saga that carries a number: an individual shareholder sued two former directors — founder Shigenobu Nagamori and Hiroshi Kobe — in the Kyoto District Court (case 1749 of 2026) for ¥28,730,558,300 plus delinquent charges under Article 462, paragraph 1, the capital-maintenance provision rather than the duty-of-care one. The claim is that three specific capital returns exceeded the distributable amount: the treasury-share buybacks of September 2022 and February–March 2023, and the December 2022 midterm dividend. That is the restatement arriving as a liability instead of as an accounting entry, and it is the mechanism worth understanding — correct the accounts for those years downward and the distributable amount shrinks retroactively, which is what makes capital already paid out unlawful after the fact. Nidec says the action, being against individuals, will not affect its business performance. That is accurate about the P&L and beside the point about governance: the suit does not need to succeed to establish that the restatement has consequences with numbers attached, and ¥28.7bn is the first one. Nidec has an Executive Responsibility Investigation Committee, running since 13 March 2026, to decide whether directors, auditors and executive officers bear legal liability. The US ADR has barely traded since February, which is why the Tokyo line is the only usable quote."]},{"id":"schaeffler","name":"Schaeffler","tier":1,"tierLabel":"Tier one — humanoid component suppliers","ticker":"SHA0.DE","tickerNote":"ADR SFFLY","listed":true,"role":"Actuator modules & bearings","price":{"display":"€6.54","value":6.54,"currency":"EUR"},"changes":{"day":-6.2,"month":-13.6,"ytd":-21.8,"year":12.9,"vs52WeekHigh":-45.4},"correlations":{"remx":0.46,"roboticsBasket":0.6},"position":"Motor + gear + electronics","facts":[{"label":"Partners","value":"Hexagon, Humanoid"},{"label":"Own deployment","value":"1,000+ units"},{"label":"YTD","value":"−21.8%"},{"label":"Corr robotics","value":"0.60"}],"watch":"Whether actuators are ever broken out as a reported segment. Until then the robotics revenue is invisible inside an auto-parts P&L.","notes":["The most concrete commercial traction on the list. Schaeffler signed a strategic partnership with Swiss Hexagon Robotics in April 2026 for strain wave and planetary gear actuators, and a separate technology and supply partnership with UK-based Humanoid. It is also a customer: it plans to deploy at least a thousand Hexagon robots across its own plants within seven years.","The in-house manufacturing point is fair — motors, power electronics and encoders are built internally. The offset is that Schaeffler remains predominantly an automotive supplier, so a humanoid win is diluted by a large, cyclical, structurally pressured base business. That mixed identity shows in the tape: down 21.8% YTD despite being up 12.9% over twelve months, and 45.4% below its high. The fortnight of going nowhere ended on Friday. Four sessions had sat inside nine cents — €7.34 on 7 September, €7.43 on 8 September, €7.40 on 9 September and €7.34 on 10 September — and then 11 September broke the range, −2.0% to €7.19, the lowest close since 2 September. Monday went further, −3.3% to €6.95, and Tuesday further again: −2.4% to €6.78, the lowest close since 20 March — nearly six months undone in three sessions. Wednesday halted it, +1.2% to €6.86, the only tier-one name to rise that session, and Thursday reversed harder, +3.1% to €7.07 — its best session since 2 September. That did not hold either: −2.0% to €6.93 on 18 September, then +0.9% to €6.99 on 21 September and +2.0% to €7.13 on 22 September, its best close in a week — before giving it back, −2.2% to €6.97 on 23 September, in the same dollar-led metals session that took the minerals tier down. Then 24 September broke the whole range: −6.2% to €6.54, its worst session since 31 July and its lowest close since 26 November 2025. The sector context does not cover it — the DAX fell 0.57% with autos the worst-performing corner, and the largest carmakers in that move fell 2.2–2.4% — and there was no company disclosure on the day. The shape argues against a single headline: no gap at the open, a slow grind from €6.84 to €6.75 by mid-morning, then an acceleration through the last ninety minutes on 1.33m shares, more than three times Monday's volume. What there was, and what this page missed for two days, is a sell-side catalyst one session old: Jefferies cut its target to €8.70 from €9.45 on 23 September, keeping a Buy, with analyst Vanessa Jeffriess writing that Schaeffler's reduction of its own 2028 targets had damaged credibility — while calling the non-automotive robotics business the most attractive investment story in the sector. That note is the documented cause of the −2.2% on 23 September, which this page had loosely hung on a dollar-led metals session a German auto-parts supplier has no business being in. It does not by itself carry a 6.2% second-day move, and no disclosure does, so the caution stands — but “a cause it cannot source” was too strong: the two sessions together are −8.3%, €7.13 to €6.54, and the first of them has a name on it. It never joined the mid-August drawdown, so for a fortnight it had nothing to give back; it has given back far more than that since, and the month now reads 13.6% lower where three weeks earlier this was the one tier-one name essentially flat on that measure. Note what it is not: a chip name. Schaeffler fell on the same session as the semiconductor selloff but for its own reasons, and at 0.60 to the robotics basket it is one of the two loosest fits on the tier, alongside Ambarella at 0.54 — the two names here that are really something else. Several of these closes were reconstructed from the closing auction print when the German daily feed swallowed the session, and the ledger keeps closing behind itself: the 7, 16, 21, 22 and 23 September bars have all filled at exactly €7.34, €6.86, €6.99, €7.13 and €6.97, the last of them a fifteenth reconstruction confirmed to the cent. 24 September is the new hole, and because it carries a 6.2% session rather than a quiet one it was closed on four routes rather than two: the 17:35 auction bar at €6.54 on 484,271 shares, previousClose and chartPreviousClose both reading the same, and an independent German quote service carrying the session at 6.540. See the method note.","One correction worth flagging, because it changes the read. Measured on the thin SFFLY ADR, Schaeffler's correlation to the robotics basket looks like 0.16 — essentially unrelated. Measured on the liquid Xetra line it is 0.60. The ADR was not tracking the company; it was tracking its own illiquidity. Schaeffler belongs firmly inside the robotics bloc — and at 0.46 it is also the tier-one name that moves most with REMX, which fits a supplier whose bill of materials is heavy in magnets and bearing steel."]},{"id":"ambarella","name":"Ambarella","tier":1,"tierLabel":"Tier one — humanoid component suppliers","ticker":"AMBA","tickerNote":"Nasdaq","listed":true,"role":"Edge AI vision silicon","price":{"display":"$69.86","value":69.86,"currency":"USD"},"changes":{"day":3.3,"month":-1.3,"ytd":-1.4,"year":-17.5,"vs52WeekHigh":-27.8},"correlations":{"remx":0.2,"roboticsBasket":0.54},"position":"On-robot vision, no cloud","facts":[{"label":"FY26 rev","value":"$390.7m"},{"label":"Growth","value":"+37.2%"},{"label":"FY27e","value":"+10–15%"},{"label":"Q2 FY27 rev","value":"$108.1m"},{"label":"Design wins","value":"15+"}],"watch":"Robotics revenue disclosed as its own line — and Q2 did not do it. “Physical AI” now appears in the serviceable-market framing, but there is still no robotics number to hold anyone to, so this name remains a narrative read rather than a volume read. Then the tape did something the disclosure did not explain. Ambarella rose 8.4% to $68.80 on 9 September, the largest single move on this page in weeks and its highest close since 31 August. The sequence is worth recording, because the obvious attribution is wrong: the stock opened flat at $63.07 against a $63.48 previous close, ran roughly 10% in the first thirty minutes to $70.28 by 10:00, then faded to $66.43 by 13:00 — before the Citi appearance began at 13:55 — and closed at $68.80 on heavy final-hour volume. The move was made in the opening half-hour, hours ahead of the only scheduled event of the day, and the stock actually fell through the appearance itself. It was not a sector move either: the semiconductor ETFs added 0.7% and 0.1%, and NXP, still the reported suitor, closed lower. No company announcement accompanied it — and a sixth of it came back the next session, −1.4% to $67.87 on 10 September, against a semiconductor index down 2.7%. On 11 September it did nothing at all, a single cent lower at $67.86, while the semiconductor index rose 1.8% — the one name on this page that joined neither the rare-earth selling nor the chip rebound. Then on 14 September the whole unexplained 9 September gain came back at once, −5.7% to $63.98, its worst session since 16 July and within fifty cents of the 8 September close it started from; 15 September then steadied it, +0.6% to $64.33 — before 16 September took it to $62.77, down 2.4%, its lowest close since 17 July. This time the attribution is easy and it is not about robots: public calls from several AI-lab executives for a slower pace of frontier development took the semiconductor complex down with them — SOXX −5.6%, Nvidia −3.4%, Broadcom −4.8%, AMD −4.4% — and Ambarella tracked the sector almost exactly. That is the useful fact about this position. On the way up, its 9 September move was idiosyncratic and unexplained; on the way down it was pure sector beta. That last session broke the pattern and was worth marking — the semiconductor index rose 0.6% on 16 September while Ambarella fell 2.4% — and then three sessions ran the other way just as hard: +6.6% to $66.91 on 17 September, the day after the Federal Reserve's first hike since 2023, −1.1% to $66.15 on 18 September, and +4.1% to $68.85 on 21 September with SOXX up 4.9% on AI optimism ahead of the 24 September state dinner — its highest close since 31 August. Three sessions, +9.7%, and again not a word from the company. It gave most of that back at once, −2.6% to $67.06 on 22 September, then steadied, +0.8% to $67.62 on 23 September — the only name on this page to rise on a session that took the whole minerals tier down — and then added +3.3% to $69.86 on 24 September, its best session since 21 September and its highest close since 28 August, once again with no company announcement attached. Which settles the read on this position: down it was sector beta, up it is sector beta, and the robotics line inside it is doing none of the work in either direction. It leaves Ambarella 1.3% lower over a month and 27.8% off its high — the narrowest that drawdown has been in this run — with a twelve-month column that fell seven and a half points on the 22 September session purely because the year-ago base rolled onto a +7.1% day, and has since climbed back to −17.5%, roughly half of that recovery coming from price and half from the base rolling on to a year-ago close $2.35 lower. It remains the only tier-one name whose drawdown is set by the AI trade rather than by industrial demand. Ambarella is still the name closest to breaking robotics out, which would make it the cleanest read on real humanoid volume anywhere on this list — the next chance is Q3, in December.","notes":["The only US-listed name and the only one with a clean, current, verifiable set of numbers. CV7 launched at CES on 5 January 2026 — an 8K edge AI vision SoC for multi-sensor perception across robotics, drones, industrial automation and automotive. Fiscal 2026 revenue was $390.7m, up 37.2%, with fiscal 2027 growth guided at 10–15%. Q2 FY2027, reported on 3 September, came in at $108.1m (+13.2%) with non-GAAP EPS of $0.18 — both a shade ahead of consensus — and Q3 guided to $115–124m.","The robotics pipeline is disclosed rather than implied: 15+ robotics design wins with lifetime revenue above $100m, and 30+ customers in the pipeline. The honest caveat is that robotics is still the smaller part of a business anchored in security cameras and automotive — and the deceleration from +37% to a guided 10–15% is the number bulls have to explain.","Nor did the follow-up. Fermi Wang appeared at Citi's Global TMT Conference on 9 September and was blunter there than on the call: robotics has “a couple design wins,” but the volume is not going to change the financial performance materially, and humanoids are, on his account, harder from a technology standpoint than a level-5 autonomous car. He also named the constraint that is not in the guidance — memory. Customers, he said, could not get allocation commitments from their memory suppliers even for November, which he called the biggest uncertainty and expected to run into 2027. For a fabless designer that is a customer-side supply problem, not a demand one, but it lands on the same revenue line.","The Q2 call moved the narrative without moving the disclosure. Fermi Wang said edge AI revenue “reached record levels” on balanced sequential growth in Auto and IoT and very strong growth from the 5nm CV75 and CV72 SoCs, and the company raised its five-year serviceable-market forecast for edge AI and physical AI, citing higher-value products and new distribution through Macnica and CapGemini. Margins went the other way: non-GAAP gross margin of 59.3% against 60.5% a year earlier, with the Q3 guide at 59–60%. Still a GAAP loss — $6.7m, or $0.15 a share — against $8.2m of non-GAAP net income, on $272.3m of cash."]},{"id":"mp-materials","name":"MP Materials","tier":2,"tierLabel":"Tier two — rare earth and critical minerals","ticker":"MP","tickerNote":"NYSE","listed":true,"role":"Mountain Pass mine + magnet plant; DoD-backed","price":{"display":"$49.30","value":49.3,"currency":"USD"},"changes":{"day":null,"month":-18.1,"ytd":-2.4,"year":-30.8,"vs52WeekHigh":-50.8},"correlations":{"remx":0.57,"roboticsBasket":0.23},"position":"Closest to the robot","facts":[{"label":"Q2 rev","value":"$108.5m"},{"label":"Magnetics","value":"$16.5m"},{"label":"NdPr floor","value":"$110/kg"},{"label":"Gadolinium deal","value":"9-figure, multi-yr"}],"watch":"Magnetics segment revenue. At $16.5m against $95.6m from materials it is still the small half of the business — but it is the half that matters for anything robotic, and the only number here that scales with Western magnet independence. The tape went the other way meanwhile: a 5.5% fall to $51.32 on 10 September inside a broad metals liquidation, then a further 1.6% to $50.51 on 11 September against a rising market and a rising gold complex, then it paused — +0.3% to $50.68 on 14 September, one of only two tier-two names to hold a session that took REMX to a six-week low — then −3.0% on 15 September and −0.4% to $48.99 on 16 September, +0.8% to $49.38 on 17 September, −4.3% to $47.26 on 18 September — its lowest close since 3 August — then +5.8% to $50.00 on 21 September on the Greenland pact, its largest single gain in more than a month, and +2.1% to $51.04 on 22 September — before −4.2% to $48.89 on 23 September, its lowest close since 18 September — then a pause, +0.8% to $49.30 on 24 September, one of only two names on this tier to rise on a session that took REMX to its lowest close since 31 July. Those sessions tipped the year twice. The 22 September close put MP positive year to date by fifty-two cents against its $50.52 close of 2025; 23 September took it straight back under, and it sits at −2.4%. It remains 50.8% below its high. A company whose magnetics revenue nearly doubled over the year is back below square one in the price and has taken none of it back on its own account. The 23 September fall is worth separating: the dollar-led metals liquidation that day took the gold miners down 4.4%, so MP's 4.2% is roughly market beta — but it came alongside the Busan Agreement's extension to 10 January, which removes the November cliff edge that had been part of the scarcity bid. One column to read carefully either way: MP shows 18.1% lower over a month, and three points of that appeared this run without a matching fall in the price, because the 30-day base rolled onto 25 August's $60.17 — a higher base, not a weaker stock. Read it against its own date.","notes":["The only vertically integrated Western play, and the one genuine bridge between \"rare earths\" and \"robot actuators.\" Q2 2026 revenue of $108.5m (+89%) came with NdPr production of 840 tonnes (+41%) and sales of 1,006 tonnes — more than double the prior year — pushing adjusted EBITDA positive and narrowing the diluted loss to $0.11 from $0.19.","The government backstop is unusually deep: the Department of Defense took $400m of preferred stock in July 2025 to become the largest shareholder, with a ten-year $110/kg NdPr price floor, and has since signed a ten-year offtake for 100% of the output of the planned 10X facility in Northlake, Texas — a $1.25bn-plus campus commissioning from 2028 that is meant to lift MP's total US magnet capacity to roughly 10,000 tonnes a year, not to produce 10,000 tonnes on its own. Beijing noticed: China's Ministry of Commerce added MP to its export-control blacklist in June 2026, and the stock fell nearly 30% through July.","The 13 Aug earnings call surfaced a new line: a multi-year, nine-figure agreement signed in July to supply separated gadolinium oxide to an undisclosed US aerospace and defense manufacturer, recovered as a co-product of the existing Mountain Pass ore stream. Terms are undisclosed so it cannot be sized precisely, but it is the clearest evidence yet that MP is building toward a multi-element refinery rather than a single-product (NdPr) business."],"alsoListedIn":[3]},{"id":"usa-rare-earth","name":"USA Rare Earth","tier":2,"tierLabel":"Tier two — rare earth and critical minerals","ticker":"USAR","tickerNote":"Nasdaq","listed":true,"role":"Stillwater commissioned, no magnet sales yet; Round Top exploration","price":{"display":"$15.38","value":15.38,"currency":"USD"},"changes":{"day":null,"month":-20.8,"ytd":29.2,"year":-7.7,"vs52WeekHigh":-65},"correlations":{"remx":0.35,"roboticsBasket":0.12},"position":"Already shipping","facts":[{"label":"Line","value":"commissioned Q2 2026"},{"label":"Q4 target","value":"600 mtpa"},{"label":"Magnet sales","value":"none yet"},{"label":"Cash","value":"$1.53bn"},{"label":"SPV funding","value":"$1.55bn"},{"label":"Serra Verde","value":"closed 3 Sep"},{"label":"Blacksburg","value":"6,400 tpa"},{"label":"Off high","value":"−65.0%"}],"watch":"The first magnet invoice, which on the company's own account does not yet exist. Two run-rates are due by the end of this year — Stillwater's 600 mtpa of sintered magnets and Serra Verde's 4,000 tpa of rare earth oxide — and the gap between “commissioned” and “sold” is now the whole question. Every financing gate has been cleared — the vote, the $1.55bn SPV, the DFC facility — so from here the only thing left to miss is production, and the first management test is a leadership handover three weeks after the merger closed. The tape has read each corporate step as dilution arriving rather than risk lifting; the fourth-quarter numbers are where that gets settled either way.","notes":["The source post is still wrong about the timeline, but this page was wrong about the other end of it, and the correction matters more. USAR did commission its Phase 1a commercial magnet line at Stillwater, Oklahoma in Q2 2026, pulling the plant forward by about two years from the 2028 date the post implies — and the company says it “has commenced commercial production.” What it has not done is sell any of it. The Q2 10-Q is explicit that Stillwater “has recently been commissioned and has commenced commercial production; however, we have not begun generating revenue from” sintered NdFeB magnets, and the 15 September risk-factor supplement goes further, describing Stillwater and Blacksburg as “under development and… not yet completed” with “no… revenues to date from the sale of neo magnets, critical minerals or rare earth minerals.” This page previously said USAR “began filling customer orders” in Q2 2026. It did not. Phase 1a is guided to a 600 mtpa run-rate by the end of Q4 2026 and 1,200 mtpa combined with Phase 1b in Q1 2027, against roughly 5,000 tonnes at full build — every one of those a target, none of them yet a shipment.","Q2 2026 revenue was $5.8m against a $10.3m net loss (down from $142.5m a year earlier, when the company had no commercial revenue at all). None of that $5.8m is magnets: the 10-Q attributes it “all” to Less Common Metals, the Cheshire metals subsidiary acquired in November 2025, and states that all revenue “is derived from sales of casting and strip casting” — at a gross loss of $1.6m on a negative 27.2% gross margin. The balance sheet is the actual headline: $1.53bn of cash at quarter-end, up from $359.9m at year-end 2025. USAR is deploying it into corporate structure as much as capacity — it closed the acquisition of Texas Mineral Resources Corp on 7 Aug, giving it outright ownership of Round Top, and finalized a roughly 13.6% stake in French rare-earth processor Carester. It agreed to buy Brazil's Serra Verde, the only scaled ex-China producer of all four magnet rare earths, for about $2.8bn; shareholders approved the share issuance on 28 August — 108,248,297 votes for against 1,403,269 opposed, with 16,879,393 abstentions — and the combination completed on 3 September 2026, announced the following morning and filed the same day on Form 8-K under Item 2.01. This page carried it as pending for a week longer than it was; that was wrong, and the correction is the more important half of this card.","What actually closed is bigger than the price tag suggested. USAR paid $300m in cash plus 126,849,307 new shares to Serra Verde's shareholders, lenders, warrant holders, employees and consultants, and took on Serra Verde's financing with it: a facility of up to $565m from the US International Development Finance Corporation, sized to fund the Brazilian optimisation and expansion programme through to positive cash flow. The Goiás operation has been producing since January 2024 and is finishing a commissioning and optimisation programme whose first stage targets a run-rate of about 4,000 tpa of total rare earth oxide by the end of 2026. Sir Mick Davis joins the board; Thras Moraitis becomes President immediately and succeeds Barbara Humpton as chief executive on 1 October. USAR now owns an operating heavy rare-earth mine, a magnet line and a separation stake — upstream, midstream and downstream in one company, which is what MP has and no one else outside China does.","The financing behind that deal landed on 24 August 2026 and is the most consequential development on this page since the last refresh. The special-purpose vehicle that will buy 100% of Serra Verde's Phase 1 output completed an upsized $1.55bn capitalisation: a $750m Department of War investment, raised from the $500m originally contemplated, a bank senior secured borrowing-base revolver of up to $500m, and a US government forward purchase contract for not less than $300m of rare-earth product over five years. The offtake runs fifteen years on take-or-pay terms with guaranteed price floors on the magnetic rare earths — including, on the company's account, the first such floors anywhere for dysprosium and terbium. Read against the $110/kg NdPr floor MP already has, Washington is now underwriting the price of the heavy elements too, which is the part of the chain China actually controls.","And on 9 September 2026 it broke ground on a second magnet plant, which this page should have carried a run earlier. The site is Blacksburg, South Carolina — 124 acres in Bailey Industrial Park, Cherokee County, about 800,000 square feet, roughly $1.2bn of investment and some 490 manufacturing jobs, commissioning in 2028. The capacity is the part that matters: 6,400 tpa of sintered NdFeB magnets plus 5,000 tpa of strip-cast metal and alloy. On its own that is larger than Stillwater's full build of roughly 5,000 tonnes, and it places a second and bigger magnet line behind the company's own metal. Measured against MP's 10X campus, which is meant to lift MP's total US magnet capacity to about 10,000 tpa from 2028, Blacksburg is the largest single increment to announced ex-China magnet tonnage anywhere on this page. The company says it screened nearly 275 sites before choosing it. None of this moved the stock, which fell 8.8% across the two sessions that followed.","The Round Top deposit in West Texas is the part that is genuinely years out, and the distinction matters: the magnets Stillwater is producing are made from purchased feedstock, not from USAR's own mine — and the 15 September supplement flags that too, warning that feedstock delays at Less Common Metals have already constrained the plant, and that China's 22 June 2026 export-control designation “has had and is expected to continue to have an adverse impact on our ability to source key raw materials.” Round Top did produce a first dysprosium oxide sample at 99.1% purity in January. Like MP, USAR was added to China's export-control list in June 2026. The stock sits 65.0% below its 52-week high, still the widest drawdown of the robotics-adjacent names, and closing the deal did nothing to lift it. It fell 5% on the day the SPV funding was announced, 6.5% on the day of the vote, 7.4% on 31 August when the result was disclosed and 3.1% on 1 September; it then drifted through six sessions either side of completion, fell 3.4% to $17.06 on 9 September, a further 6.0% to $16.04 on 10 September — the largest fall on the page that day, though that one arrived with the whole metals complex rather than alone — and 3.0% to $15.56 on 11 September, which did not: the complex rebounded that session and USAR made a fresh low regardless, its weakest close since 31 July. The one-way tape broke only briefly — +1.0% to $15.71 on 14 September, one of only two tier-two names to hold a session that took REMX to a six-week low, then −2.0% to $15.40 on 15 September and −1.9% to $15.10 on 16 September, a fresh low for the run. Then the move finally came, and not from the company: +3.5% to $15.63 on 17 September, −1.7% to $15.37 on 18 September, and +9.2% to $16.78 on 21 September — the largest single gain anywhere on this page in this period — on Trump's security agreement with Denmark and Greenland, followed by a much quieter +1.3% to $16.99 on 22 September — and then the whole policy bid came out at once, −6.8% to $15.83 on 23 September, the largest fall anywhere on this page that session and its lowest close since 18 September. That one is not market beta: the gold miners fell 4.4% and REMX 3.1% on the same dollar move, and USAR went half as far again as either, on the day Bessent extended the trade truce past its November expiry. The symmetry is the lesson — two sessions of policy bid on a treaty about an island it has no assets on, one session of policy unwind on a truce it is not party to either. USA Rare Earth owns nothing in Greenland and is not a signatory in Busan. A fourth session then took it lower again with no policy in it at all, −2.8% to $15.38 on 24 September, back to within a cent of its 18 September low and 65.0% below its high, the steepest drawdown on the page bar Novonix. Six weeks of decisive corporate progress moved this stock down 20.8% over a month; policy headlines moved it nine per cent up and seven per cent down inside three sessions. Its twelve-month return crossed from +5.7% to −11.3% on that one session, most of it the year-ago base rolling up rather than the price rolling down, and it has since recovered to −7.7% on the base rolling the other way. The market is pricing the dilution ahead of the assets — 126.8m new shares against 244.7m outstanding is arithmetic, the assets require execution — and pricing the policy tape ahead of both. The claim audit carries the Greenland attribution."]},{"id":"lynas-rare-earths","name":"Lynas Rare Earths","tier":2,"tierLabel":"Tier two — rare earth and critical minerals","ticker":"LYSDY","tickerNote":"ADR","listed":true,"role":"Largest producer outside China; first Dy/Tb","price":{"display":"$9.94","value":9.94,"currency":"USD"},"changes":{"day":null,"month":-16.7,"ytd":20.2,"year":-12.2,"vs52WeekHigh":-38.6},"correlations":{"remx":0.64,"roboticsBasket":0.17},"position":"Heavy rare earths","facts":[{"label":"FY26 revenue","value":"A$977.9m"},{"label":"NPAT","value":"A$222.4m"},{"label":"HRE capex","value":"+63%"},{"label":"Seadrift","value":"redirected"}],"watch":"Whether Seadrift is revived or quietly shelved, and the dysprosium/terbium ramp against that 63% capex escalation. The heavy circuit is the part China cannot easily replace and the part no one else outside China has — but USA Rare Earth's new US-backed Dy/Tb price floors are the first sign that someone else intends to be paid for it too. A permanent CEO is also still outstanding: Pol Le Roux has run the company on an interim basis since 1 July.","notes":["Operationally the strongest of the five, and now with a full year on the board. FY26 results, reported 26 August 2026, were records across the line: revenue of A$977.9m, up 76%, net profit after tax of A$222.4m against A$8.0m the year before, REO production of 13,089 tonnes (+25%), NdPr production of 7,260 tonnes (+11%) and a record average realised price of A$80.7/kg. More strategically, it became the first commercial producer outside China of separated dysprosium and terbium — first terbium oxide in June 2026, on a heavy rare-earth circuit of about 1,500 tonnes a year.","The market did not take it as a clean beat. The ADR fell 5.9% on results day before recovering 5.0% the next session, then gave back another 8% into 1 September with the rest of the mining complex, and rose in four sessions to $11.23 on 8 September. That run ended abruptly: −2.9% to $10.91 on 9 September, then −4.3% to $10.44 on 10 September in the broad metals selloff, −2.2% to $10.21 on 11 September after it reversed, −3.2% on 14 September, −0.7% on 15 September and −2.9% to $9.53 on 16 September — its lowest close since 6 January. It has since recovered the handle: +2.5% to $9.77 on 17 September, +2.9% to $10.05 on 18 September, its first close back above $10 since 11 September, then the one faller on the page's Greenland session, −0.3% to $10.02, then the tier's second-strongest session the next day, +3.1% to $10.33 on 22 September, and then −2.6% to $10.06 on 23 September in the dollar-led liquidation. Nothing from the company behind any of them, in either direction; the Sydney ordinary line followed a session later, −1.9% to A$14.39 on 24 September, in an Asian rare-earth session the wires attributed to the truce extension. Over a month the ADR is 14.2% lower against REMX's 15.4% — still the steeper of the two, which is roughly what a 0.64 correlation and a higher beta produce together. A fifth session followed, −1.2% to $9.94 on 24 September, its lowest close since 17 September and its first below $10 since then. Its twelve-month column crossed below zero on 23 September, from +1.0% to −8.1%, the year-ago base moving up from $10.23 to $10.95 doing most of that, and it now reads −12.2%. The reason is on the cost side: capital expenditure on the heavy rare-earth circuit has escalated 63%, to A$294m from A$180m, which the company attributes to sourcing equipment outside China. That is the price of the scarcity premium, stated in cash.","That heavy-element capability is the real scarcity. Terbium oxide outside China has traded at $4,500–$4,700/kg against under $1,000 domestically, and dysprosium and terbium are what keep magnets stable at motor operating temperatures. The post's claim that Lynas is \"now building a US processing facility\" is out of date: on 16 March 2026 the US government redirected the US$96m earmarked for the Seadrift, Texas heavy rare-earth plant into a four-year purchase agreement for Lynas product instead, with a US$110/kg NdPr floor. The Texas plant is in limbo, not under construction."]},{"id":"perpetua-resources","name":"Perpetua Resources","tier":2,"tierLabel":"Tier two — rare earth and critical minerals","ticker":"PPTA","tickerNote":"Nasdaq","listed":true,"role":"Antimony & gold, Idaho — not a rare earth","price":{"display":"$23.42","value":23.42,"currency":"USD"},"changes":{"day":null,"month":-13.3,"ytd":-3.3,"year":24.2,"vs52WeekHigh":-37.3},"correlations":{"remx":0.51,"roboticsBasket":0.2},"position":"Not a magnet input","facts":[{"label":"EXIM loan","value":"$2.9bn"},{"label":"Gold miners","value":"−12.5% 1m"},{"label":"Antimony","value":"−5.9% YTD"},{"label":"Gold","value":"~450koz/yr"},{"label":"US antimony","value":"~35%"},{"label":"First production","value":"2029"}],"watch":"Financial close on the EXIM facility, still guided to the second half of 2026 as of the 17 August quarterly and not yet done. Approved is not drawn — and with first metal four years out, financing terms matter more than commodity prices here. Cash at 30 June was $574.2m.","notes":["A well-financed critical-minerals project that has almost nothing to do with robotics. Perpetua secured a $2.9bn EXIM loan, board-approved in May 2026 and expected to become available in the second half of the year, on top of a $255m private placement in October 2025 backed by Agnico Eagle and JPMorgan. Construction at Stibnite in Idaho is underway.","Two caveats the post skips. First, this is predominantly a gold mine: reserves of roughly 4.8 million ounces and about 450,000 ounces of gold a year over the first four years, with antimony supplying an estimated 35% of US demand alongside it. Second, production does not begin until 2029. Antimony goes into flame retardants, ammunition and alloys — not robot joints. It earns its place on a critical-minerals list, not on a robotics one.","The tape adds a third caveat, and fifteen sessions have now sharpened it in both directions. Perpetua shows −10.1% over the past month, and that relationship inverted for a week before reasserting itself: bullion is 7.9% lower over the same 30 days and the gold miners 9.6% lower, so a 10.1% fall once again sits below the metal and roughly level with the equities — the ordinary configuration for a high-beta gold miner, after a fortnight in which it was not. The explanation is in the sessions below: several of them moved on something other than gold. On 31 August gold rose and Perpetua fell 4.7% anyway, alongside the gold miners; on 1 September gold fell 1.9%, the miners 3.9%, and Perpetua 5.8%. Then it ran in reverse: on 2 September the miners rose 3.1% and Perpetua 4.1%. On 3 September the relationship held in direction but not in size — gold 1.9%, the miners 4.0%, and Perpetua only 2.4%, for once lagging the equities it usually amplifies. Then on 4 September it decoupled altogether: gold fell 1.4% and the miners 2.2%, and Perpetua did nothing at all, +0.2% to $25.09. On 8 September the usual relationship resumed quietly: gold eased 0.8% and Perpetua 1.3% to $24.76. On 9 September it went missing again: bullion added 0.9% and the gold miners 1.1%, and Perpetua closed unchanged at $24.76, to the cent. Then on 10 September it came back with force — bullion −1.7%, the gold miners −3.5% and Perpetua −4.4% to $23.67. On 11 September it went quiet once more: bullion rose 0.6% and the miners 1.1%, and Perpetua eased 0.2% to $23.63, its lowest close since 1 September and the only tier-two name that barely moved on a day the rest of the tier fell. Then on 14 September it amplified the complex again and harder than either leg of it: bullion −1.3%, the gold miners −3.1%, and Perpetua −4.6% to $22.55, its lowest close since 4 August — before it recovered 0.6% to $22.69 on 15 September, the only tier-two name to rise on a session when gold fell again. The three sessions since split the same way. On 17 September it tracked the equities closely — the miners +3.4%, Perpetua +3.8% to $23.37 — and on 18 September it tracked them again, the miners −0.5% and Perpetua −0.6% to $23.24. Then on 21 September it decoupled upward for the first time in this run on something that was not gold at all: bullion −0.7%, the gold miners −1.1%, and Perpetua +1.9% to $23.68, moving with the rare-earth complex on the Greenland pact rather than with the metal it is actually levered to. On 22 September it went back to the miners and amplified them mildly: bullion +0.4%, the gold miners +3.6%, and Perpetua +4.6% to $24.76 — the largest single gain anywhere on this page that session, and still an ordinary gold-equity beta rather than an antimony event, with no company disclosure attached to it. That is the exception that proves the rule this card exists to state — antimony is a critical mineral, so it catches a critical-minerals bid, and none of that is the gold mine that will supply 450,000 ounces a year from 2029. Four times in thirteen sessions it has ignored a moving metal and a moving miners index, and twice it has multiplied one. That session carries a caution worth recording, because this page names GOLD as the instrument to check before attributing a Perpetua move. GOLD is Barrick, and Barrick rose 11.2% that day against a falling metal and a falling miners index. A single-name divergence that wide is company-specific, not a gold signal — which is why the comparison above is drawn against the miners index rather than against Barrick alone. Then 23 September put it back in its ordinary place and took the year with it: bullion −1.8%, the gold miners −4.4%, and Perpetua −5.8% to $23.32, its lowest close since 18 September — a mild amplification of the miners in a dollar-led liquidation, with no antimony in it and no company disclosure, exactly as on the way up the session before. Its year-to-date column crossed back below zero in the process, from +2.3% to −3.7%, one session after crossing above. Then 24 September broke the pattern in the one direction it had not yet gone: Perpetua rose 0.4% to $23.42 while the gold miners fell 1.3% and bullion 0.3% — the first session in this run where it outperformed gold rather than amplifying it, and again on no company disclosure. Its year-to-date column reads −3.3% and the drawdown 37.3%. Across sixteen sessions Perpetua tracked the mining equities, not the metal, and one session of mild outperformance does not change that. The exposure is to gold equities, not to gold. Antimony went nowhere throughout: $51.80/kg at the 18 September assessment, down 5.85% year to date and about 43% from a year earlier. The commodity that earns this name its place on a critical-minerals list is flat to falling either way."]},{"id":"novonix","name":"Novonix","tier":2,"tierLabel":"Tier two — rare earth and critical minerals","ticker":"NVX","tickerNote":"Nasdaq","listed":true,"role":"Synthetic graphite for batteries, Tennessee","price":{"display":"$2.64","value":2.64,"currency":"USD"},"changes":{"day":null,"month":-39.3,"ytd":-73.9,"year":-80.3,"vs52WeekHigh":-93.2},"correlations":{"remx":0.4,"roboticsBasket":0.28},"position":"Not a magnet input","facts":[{"label":"H1 loss","value":"$24.6m"},{"label":"Cash","value":"$59.5m"},{"label":"Auditor","value":"going-concern doubt"},{"label":"Yorkville floor","value":"A$0.12"},{"label":"Off high","value":"−93.2%"}],"watch":"Whether the A$0.12 floor being breached is now treated as an amortisation event. The shares touched the level exactly on 14 September and have closed below it in every one of the nine sessions since, ending at A$0.098 on 25 September, 18% under it, with the heaviest volume of the run on the way down. That is no longer an open question about whether the threshold gets tested; what is open is the consequence, and a cash redemption against a $59.5m balance falling by roughly $23m a half is a large one. Dilution or a raise was already the base case; the auditor has written the reason into the accounts and the tape has now written the trigger. It is the only name on this list where solvency is the question rather than growth.","notes":["The weakest name on either list, and it deserves a plain warning rather than a bullet point. Novonix makes synthetic graphite for battery anodes in Chattanooga, Tennessee — a battery input, not a magnet input, and not part of any robot's bill of materials in the way the tier-one components are.","The financials are severe, and on 31 August 2026 the auditor said so in the accounts. The half-year report for the six months to 30 June shows a loss of $24.6m against $20.1m a year earlier, net operating cash outflows of $23.1m, and cash down to $59.5m from $79.9m at 31 December. Net current liabilities stand at $2.5m where six months earlier there were net current assets of $5.6m. The independent auditor's review report carries a material uncertainty that may cast significant doubt on the group's ability to continue as a going concern. The same report has the company backing away from a land purchase beside its Chattanooga plant and stretching the Riverside ramp-up, which is what conserving cash looks like in a capital project. The genuine positive is still the US$103m of 48C tax credits certified in April 2026 for the Riverside project — but those vest only when the first 11,000 tpa of capacity is in service before 7 April 2028, and a slower ramp is the one thing that deadline cannot absorb. Mass production for lead customer Panasonic is not expected before 2027.","The going-concern note names the trigger, which is what makes this more than a slow burn. $35m of face value in unsecured convertible debentures issued to Yorkville carries an A$0.12 floor on the ASX share price: a fall below it may constitute an amortisation event, under which the company could be required to redeem part or all of the outstanding balance in cash. On 31 August, the day that note was published, the ordinary shares closed at A$0.11, down 12.0% on 12.3m shares against a recent average nearer 3.5m, and the Nasdaq line fell 12.3% the same session. They have not recovered: A$0.11 on 1 September, A$0.105 on 2 and 3 September, A$0.11 on 4 September, A$0.105 on 7 September, then −9.5% to A$0.095 on 8 September — the first close below ten cents — A$0.098 on 9 September, a 7.1% bounce to A$0.105 on 10 September on 10.8m shares against a recent average nearer 3.5m, and A$0.105 again on 11 September — ten consecutive closes below the floor, the lowest of them 20.8% under it. Then on 14 September the shares rose 14.3% to A$0.12 on 7.0m shares, their first close back at the threshold since 28 August, with no ASX announcement attached to it. That was the top. Three sessions at A$0.11 followed, then A$0.10 on 18 September on 23.2m shares — by far the heaviest volume of this entire run, against a recent average nearer 3.5m — A$0.099 on both 21 and 22 September, A$0.097 on 23 September, a fresh low for the run, and A$0.099 on 24 September. The clause turns on a fall below A$0.12: the shares have now closed below it in eight consecutive sessions since touching it, the last of them 17.5% under it, and the heaviest volume of the run came on the way down. They are also 38% below the A$0.16 the June placement was struck at. Nothing has been announced. This is the position the going-concern note describes, arrived at. The directors rest the going-concern basis on a history of raising capital, including $14.5m from a June 2026 placement; the share purchase plan that followed it raised A$0.96m.","The US listing is a separate problem, already solved once. On 12 August the company agreed with BNY to change its ADS ratio from one ADS per four ordinary shares to one per forty — economically a one-for-ten reverse split of the ADSs, effective 27 August 2026, done to lift the traded price back over Nasdaq's minimum bid threshold. The underlying ASX ordinary shares are untouched; only the US wrapper changed. On the new ratio the US line fell to $2.86 on 3 September, rebounded 5.2% to $3.01 on 4 September, fell 8.3% to $2.76 after Labor Day, eased 0.7% to $2.74 on 9 September — a two-year closing low — then rose 6.2% to $2.91 on 10 September, the only US line on this page to rise that session and a day behind the Australian bounce it was following, added a further 2.4% to $2.98 on 11 September, and then jumped 8.4% to $3.23 on 14 September — its highest close since 28 August and the largest single gain anywhere on this page that session — before handing most of it back, −5.6% to $3.05 on 15 September. Since then it has followed the Australian line down with a session's lag and no news at either end: $2.97 on 16 September, $3.03 on 17 September, −4.8% to $2.885 on 18 September, −1.6% to $2.84 on 21 September, a near-flat $2.85 on 22 September, −3.4% to $2.801 on 23 September and then −5.7% to $2.64 on 24 September — its worst session since 8 September and the lowest close in its three-year series, taking out the $2.74 of 9 September that had been the floor. The 52-week low proper is $2.52, an intraday print rather than a settlement. The Sydney line, a session ahead, closed A$0.098 on 25 September — a ninth consecutive close below the A$0.12 Yorkville amortisation threshold, 18% under it, and 39% below the A$0.16 the June placement was struck at, with no announcement attached to any of it. That leaves the US line 93.2% below its high, 80.3% down over a year and 73.9% lower year to date — the worst figures in every column on this page, and the only ones that got worse in all four this run. A ratio change buys compliance, not solvency: in the twenty sessions since it took effect the US line has gone from $3.51 to $2.64, still clear of Nasdaq’s $1 threshold but well inside the range where it matters."]},{"id":"tdk","name":"TDK","tier":3,"tierLabel":"Tier three — the magnet layer","ticker":"6762.T","tickerNote":"Tokyo","listed":true,"role":"Largest non-Chinese NdFeB maker; ferrite","access":"Direct — listed in Tokyo","price":{"display":"¥2,978","value":2978,"currency":"JPY"},"changes":{"day":null,"month":null,"ytd":34.7,"year":39,"vs52WeekHigh":null},"correlations":{"remx":null,"roboticsBasket":0.54},"position":"Largest ex-China","facts":[{"label":"Price","value":"¥2,978"},{"label":"YTD","value":"+34.7%"},{"label":"1y","value":"+39.0%"},{"label":"Corr robotics","value":"0.54"}],"watch":"Any segment disclosure sizing magnets against the battery business. Without it, the magnet exposure is real but unmeasurable — the same problem Aichi Steel has, at much larger scale. The 0.54 correlation keeps earning its keep: TDK fell 6.9% on 8 September — the worst session of any name on this page — in a yen-driven selloff that had nothing to do with magnets, recovered 1.4% and a further 1.4% to ¥2,850.5 by 10 September, gave back 1.5% on 11 September as oil and bond yields took the whole Tokyo market down, added 0.3% on 14 September while the index fell 0.81% on its AI complex, rose a further 0.6% on 15 September and added 1.4% to ¥2,872 on 16 September, before giving all of it back and more on 17 September, −2.3% to ¥2,806 — one of only two Tokyo names on this page to fall on a rising index — then recovering +1.4% to ¥2,845 on the Bank of Japan's hike, the smallest of the five Tokyo gains that session — and then, on the reopen after the three-day holiday, the largest: +3.9% to ¥2,954.5 on 24 September, the biggest single gain anywhere on this page that day, on a session led by the semiconductor-equipment names rather than by anything magnetic. It added +0.8% to ¥2,978 on 25 September, its highest close since 7 September — though the index rose 1.30% that day, so this was a lag rather than a lead. It moves with Murata and Taiyo Yuden rather than with the gearbox makers, which is the point: this is a Japanese electronics exporter that happens to make magnets. Note what it did not do on 14 September: the AI-pace selloff that took the US semiconductor complex down more than 5% that session left TDK higher on both sides of it. A passive-components maker is not an AI-silicon name, and the tape agrees even when the sector label does not. Down 1.8% over a month, where a fortnight ago that figure was 10.6%, with a twelve-month return of +39.0% that has swung between +32% and +51% inside a month, purely on which day the lookback base lands — and which gained seven points on the reopen alone, as the holiday rolled its base six days onto a lower one. The same calendar effect this page keeps flagging in Nidec's and Harmonic's columns.","notes":["The most substantial magnet business you can actually buy. TDK is the largest non-Chinese neodymium magnet manufacturer by revenue and the most globally diversified, producing sintered NdFeB in Japan and China alongside ferrite and metal-powder products. The company's origins are literally magnetic — it was founded in 1935 to commercialise ferrite.","Two honest caveats. Magnets are a modest slice of the group: TDK is dominated by its energy business, including ATL, one of the world's largest lithium battery makers, plus passive components and HDD heads. And its 0.54 correlation to the robotics basket — the highest of any name outside tier one, above every robotics ETF tested — largely reflects its status as a large Japanese electronics exporter moving with the same market, not humanoid demand reaching its P&L. You would be buying a battery-and-components group with a major magnet business attached."]},{"id":"aichi-steel","name":"Aichi Steel","tier":3,"tierLabel":"Tier three — the magnet layer","ticker":"5482.T","tickerNote":"Tokyo","listed":true,"role":"Permanent magnets for robotic actuators","access":"Direct — listed in Tokyo","price":{"display":"¥3,225","value":3225,"currency":"JPY"},"changes":{"day":null,"month":null,"ytd":10.4,"year":14.6,"vs52WeekHigh":null},"correlations":{"remx":null,"roboticsBasket":0.17},"position":"Toyota group","facts":[{"label":"Price","value":"¥3,225"},{"label":"1y","value":"+14.6%"},{"label":"Off high","value":"−8.3%"},{"label":"Corr robotics","value":"0.17"}],"watch":"Any disclosure sizing the magnet business separately from steel. Without it you are buying a steelmaker with a magnet option attached, and the option is not priced because it is not visible.","notes":["The cleanest direct way to own a magnet maker on this list. A Toyota Group company engineering permanent magnets tuned for robotic actuators, with an explicit design goal of reducing dependence on constrained rare earths — the same strategic bet Proterial and Niron are making, but in a listed vehicle.","It is also the steadiest chart in this report: up 14.6% over a year and 8.3% below its 52-week high — the second-tightest drawdown on the page, behind Nidec's 3.4% — against 28–45% for four of the six tier-one names. That is partly a virtue and partly a warning: magnets are a modest slice of a diversified steelmaker, so the humanoid narrative barely moves it in either direction, up or down. It sat out the 4 September rally with a 0.8% fall, sat out Monday's 2.1% index rally with a 0.2% fall, and lost 1.8% on 8 September on a day the component names lost 3–7%. What it had not sat out was the drift: four consecutive falls, ending −0.8% to ¥3,115 on 10 September, on a day Harmonic Drive rose 2.7% and Nidec 5.6%. Then it did the rarest thing on the page — on 11 September it closed unchanged at ¥3,115, to the yen, while the Nikkei fell 1.93% and every other Tokyo name here lost ground. On 14 September it added 0.3% to ¥3,125, its first rise since 3 September, on a day the index fell again, added 0.8% on 15 September, 1.3% to ¥3,190 on 16 September and a further 2.7% to ¥3,275 on 17 September — four consecutive gains and its highest close since 3 September — before doing the one genuinely contrary thing on the page: −1.4% to ¥3,230 on 18 September, the only Tokyo name here to fall on the Bank of Japan's hike, on a session when the index rose 1.38% and the gearbox makers rose 0.8–4.8%. Then it did the contrary thing again from the other side: on the 24 September reopen it closed unchanged at ¥3,230, to the yen, while the index rose 0.76% and every other Tokyo name on this page moved 1.2–3.9%. It repeated the trick on 25 September, −0.2% to ¥3,225 against an index up 1.30% — two consecutive sessions of doing almost nothing while Tokyo moved two points. Its four-week column is now 0.0%, flat to the yen against a 26 August base of ¥3,225. Steadiness cuts both ways. It sat out the drawdown and it has now sat out three rallies, which is exactly what a magnet line inside a diversified steelmaker should be expected to do — and it is why this name will not tell you anything about humanoid demand in either direction."]},{"id":"arnold-magnetic","name":"Arnold Magnetic","tier":3,"tierLabel":"Tier three — the magnet layer","ticker":null,"tickerNote":"via CODI · NYSE","listed":false,"role":"Permanent magnets, magnetic assemblies","access":"Only via Compass Diversified, its parent","price":{"display":"$11.25","value":11.25,"currency":"USD"},"pricedVia":"Only via Compass Diversified, its parent","changes":{"day":null,"month":null,"ytd":134.4,"year":62.1,"vs52WeekHigh":null},"correlations":{"remx":null,"roboticsBasket":0.17},"position":"Owned, not listed","facts":[{"label":"Parent","value":"CODI"},{"label":"YTD","value":"+134.4%"},{"label":"Arnold EBITDA","value":"~+50% YoY"},{"label":"Corr robotics","value":"0.17"}],"watch":"Whether CODI divests Arnold. Management's 17 Aug commentary points the other way for now — Arnold was singled out as a growth standout, not flagged among the divestiture candidates — but a holding company still repairing its balance sheet post-Lugano remains a seller in waiting.","notes":["A real magnet business you cannot buy directly. Arnold makes permanent magnets, precision thin metals and magnetic assemblies to the tolerances robotics OEMs need — and in March 2026 signed a distribution agreement with USA Rare Earth, linking it straight to tier two. But it has been a subsidiary of Compass Diversified since a $130.5m acquisition in 2012, and CODI is the only way in.","That is a poor trade for magnet exposure, and the reason is not subtle. CODI is a diversified holding company whose stock fell 59% in May 2025 when a probe found pervasive accounting fraud at its Lugano Diamonds unit. It restated fiscal 2022–2024, deconsolidated Lugano after a Chapter 11 filing in November 2025, triggered credit-facility defaults requiring forbearance, and suspended its distributions. The stock is up 134.4% year to date because it is recovering from that hole, not because of magnets — and it fell 2.7% on 9 September and a further 2.3% to $10.96 on 10 September, its lowest close since 6 August, in a session that had nothing to do with either magnets or diamonds. It has since gone nowhere with unusual precision: +0.5%, +2.7% to $11.31, −1.9%, −0.8%, +0.6%, −0.5%, +1.6% to $11.21 on 21 September, +1.1% to $11.33 on 22 September, +0.2% to $11.35 on 23 September — the only US name on this page besides Ambarella to rise on a day the minerals tier was liquidated — and −0.9% to $11.25 on 24 September. That is ten sessions inside forty cents, twenty-nine cents above the 10 September low they started from. Nothing about Arnold changed in either direction across any of them, which is the recurring problem with owning a magnet business this way: the only listed route to it is a holding company whose price is set by its own recovery.","The Q2 2026 call, held 17 Aug, is the freshest read on Arnold specifically. Subsidiary adjusted EBITDA came in at $91.5m (+12.6% year over year), helped by the 1 May sale of the Sterno food-service business, whose proceeds (over $280m) went straight to paying down the senior secured term loan — total debt fell to $1.59bn from $1.89bn at year-end 2025. COO Zach Sawtelle, who succeeds retiring CEO Elias Sabo at the end of 2026, called Arnold's segment \"a standout, up nearly 50%,\" with a strong backlog tied to non-China rare-earth magnet sourcing and progress at a Thailand facility. Management said it is still pursuing further divestitures to cut debt, but did not name Arnold as a candidate — if anything, a segment growing 50% is the one they would want to keep. CODI shares still fell 4.8% on the day."]},{"id":"proterial","name":"Proterial","tier":3,"tierLabel":"Tier three — the magnet layer","ticker":null,"tickerNote":"formerly Hitachi Metals","listed":false,"role":"Advanced magnetic materials, RE-free R&D","access":"Not investable — private since 2022","price":null,"changes":{"day":null,"month":null,"ytd":null,"year":null,"vs52WeekHigh":null},"correlations":{"remx":null,"roboticsBasket":null}},{"id":"niron-magnetics","name":"Niron Magnetics","tier":3,"tierLabel":"Tier three — the magnet layer","ticker":null,"tickerNote":"private · Minnesota","listed":false,"role":"Iron nitride, rare-earth-free magnets","access":"Not investable — VC and DoW funded","price":null,"changes":{"day":null,"month":null,"ytd":null,"year":null,"vs52WeekHigh":null},"correlations":{"remx":null,"roboticsBasket":null},"position":"Rare-earth-free","facts":[{"label":"DoW loan","value":"up to $150m"},{"label":"Announced","value":"7 Aug 2026"},{"label":"Sartell","value":"1,500 t/yr, 2027"},{"label":"First steel","value":"10 Sep 2026"},{"label":"Honda","value":"equity, undisclosed"},{"label":"Rare earths","value":"none"}],"watch":"Sartell's commissioning, still pointed at 2027 now that the structure is going up, whether the 10,000-tonne follow-on site is actually named, and whether any other original-equipment maker follows Honda in. Track it as a threat to the tier-two thesis rather than as a position — the first credible rare-earth-free magnet at volume reprices every name in that tier downward.","notes":["Not investable, but the most strategically interesting name in this section — because it is trying to make the bottleneck irrelevant rather than relieve it. Niron's iron nitride permanent magnets, out of University of Minnesota research, use no rare earths at all. If they work at scale, the entire NdPr supply argument underpinning tier two weakens.","It just got a serious endorsement: on 7 August 2026 the Department of War's Office of Strategic Capital issued a conditional commitment for a direct loan of up to $150m over 20 years for a 287,000 sq ft plant in Sartell, Minnesota — intended as the world's first full-scale iron nitride production site, targeted at robots, defence systems and electric motors. The same release names a second $150m loan from the Shakopee Mdewakanton Sioux Community for the same site, so the plant carries up to $300m of committed debt against roughly $50m of venture capital raised to date.","Construction reached a visible milestone on 10 September 2026: Niron raised first steel at Sartell and, in the same release, disclosed an equity investment from Honda, made through Honda Xcelerator Ventures on undisclosed terms. That is the part worth marking. Every dollar behind this company so far has come from venture funds or from government — the Department of War loan, the tribal loan. An automaker putting its own balance sheet into rare-earth-free magnets is a customer-side endorsement, and customers are the constituency whose behaviour would actually reprice tier two.","The number that matters for tier two is the capacity. Sartell is scoped at up to 1,500 tonnes a year of rare-earth-free permanent magnets, operational in 2027 — small against MP's planned ~10,000 tonnes, but Niron says a follow-on 10,000 tonne US plant breaks ground in 2028, with site selection already under way. If the second plant lands on schedule, the rare-earth-free capacity arriving at the end of this decade is the same order of magnitude as the Western NdFeB capacity being subsidised into existence today."]},{"id":"noveon-magnetics","name":"Noveon Magnetics","tier":3,"tierLabel":"Tier three — the magnet layer","ticker":null,"tickerNote":"private · Texas","listed":false,"role":"Sintered NdFeB from recycled feedstock","access":"Not investable — private, Series B","price":null,"changes":{"day":null,"month":null,"ytd":null,"year":null,"vs52WeekHigh":null},"correlations":{"remx":null,"roboticsBasket":null}}],"contextCards":[{"title":"Proterial, Noveon and the Chinese incumbents","facts":[{"label":"Proterial","value":"private since 2022"},{"label":"Noveon","value":"$75m Series B"},{"label":"China midstream","value":"~90%"}],"watch":"Consolidation. A Western magnet maker being acquired, floated or spun out is the most likely route by which this layer becomes investable at all — and every name here is a candidate.","notes":["Proterial — formerly Hitachi Metals, a genuine heavyweight in advanced magnetic materials and rare-earth-free development — has not been buyable since October 2022, when a Bain Capital-led consortium completed a roughly $7.5bn take-private and the shares were delisted. It was renamed in January 2023. Any list presenting it as a way to invest in magnets is out of date by nearly four years.","Noveon Magnetics is a private Texas manufacturer producing sintered NdFeB through its EcoFlux recycling process — a closed-loop route that sidesteps mining entirely. It has raised a $75m Series B and is operational, which makes it a real competitor to MP and USAR, just not a tradeable one.","On the Chinese side, the incumbents are what make the ~90% midstream share real. Two names circulating in research summaries, Ningbo Zhanhao and Mainrich Magnets, could not be verified as listed entities and should not be treated as tickers. The clearest listed Chinese pure-play in rare-earth permanent magnets is Ningbo Yunsheng (600366.SS) — A-share access and Chinese policy risk apply, which is much of the reason the West is building alternatives at all."]}],"correlations":[{"name":"Lynas","ticker":"LYSDY","group":"minerals","remx":0.64,"roboticsBasket":0.17},{"name":"MP Materials","ticker":"MP","group":"minerals","remx":0.57,"roboticsBasket":0.23},{"name":"Perpetua","ticker":"PPTA","group":"minerals","remx":0.51,"roboticsBasket":0.2},{"name":"Schaeffler","ticker":"SHA0.DE","group":"robotics","remx":0.46,"roboticsBasket":0.6},{"name":"Novonix","ticker":"NVX","group":"minerals","remx":0.4,"roboticsBasket":0.28},{"name":"USA Rare Earth","ticker":"USAR","group":"minerals","remx":0.35,"roboticsBasket":0.12},{"name":"Nidec","ticker":"6594.T","group":"robotics","remx":0.32,"roboticsBasket":0.62},{"name":"Yaskawa","ticker":"6506.T","group":"robotics","remx":0.28,"roboticsBasket":0.83},{"name":"Nabtesco","ticker":"6268.T","group":"robotics","remx":0.25,"roboticsBasket":0.76},{"name":"Ambarella","ticker":"AMBA","group":"robotics","remx":0.2,"roboticsBasket":0.54},{"name":"Harmonic Drive","ticker":"6324.T","group":"robotics","remx":0.19,"roboticsBasket":0.82}],"claimAudit":[{"verdict":"Checks out","claim":"Nabtesco operating profit rose 60% year over year","assessment":"Correct. FY2025 operating profit +60.3% to ¥20.7bn on revenue of ¥307.9bn."},{"verdict":"Checks out","claim":"Ambarella's CV7 launched at CES 2026 for on-robot perception","assessment":"Correct. Announced 5 January 2026, an 8K edge AI vision SoC explicitly targeting robotics and industrial automation."},{"verdict":"Checks out","claim":"MP Materials revenue jumped 89% to $108.5m","assessment":"Correct and current. Q2 2026, reported 7 August — up from $57.4m, with NdPr output +41% and adjusted EBITDA turning positive."},{"verdict":"Half right","claim":"Schaeffler is signing partnerships with multiple humanoid makers","assessment":"True — Hexagon Robotics and Humanoid, both confirmed. But the ticker given, SFHLF, is SAF-Holland, a truck-parts supplier. Schaeffler is SHA0.DE or ADR SFFLY. Buying the quoted ticker buys the wrong company."},{"verdict":"Half right","claim":"Nidec has ¥2.6 trillion in annual revenue and the scale to dominate","assessment":"The revenue figure is right (the post's \"$2.6 trillion yen\" is a units error — it is ~$17bn). Omitted: an accounting investigation opened in September 2025 whose final report landed on 17 April 2026 and whose restatements are still not filed, results delayed again on 5 August 2026, a separate quality-misconduct investigation whose report was published on 4 September 2026 and which found falsified test results and shipments of unauthorised items across multiple bases (though no material financial impact), a shareholder demand on 5 August that directors be pursued for liability, and a second, joint demand from multiple shareholders on 20 August."},{"verdict":"Stale","claim":"\"Breaking: the Pentagon bought a $400,000,000 stake in America's only rare earth mine\"","assessment":"Real, but announced 10 July 2025 — thirteen months before the post. The DoD preferred-stock purchase plus warrant took it to ~15% of MP on an as-converted basis. It is not news, and it is already in the price."},{"verdict":"Wrong","claim":"Yaskawa's operating profit rose roughly 70% in its most recent fiscal year","assessment":"Inverted. For FY ended February 2026, operating profit fell more than 5%, with pre-tax and net profit down more. The ~70% figure resembles the forward net-profit guidance for FY2/27, not a delivered result."},{"verdict":"Wrong","claim":"USA Rare Earth has commercial production expected by 2028","assessment":"Out of date by two years on the plant, though this page over-corrected in the other direction and has now fixed it. USAR commissioned its Phase 1a magnet line at Stillwater in Q2 2026 and says it has commenced commercial production, guiding to 600 mtpa by end-Q4 2026 — so the 2028-style timeline belongs to the Round Top mine, not to the magnet plant, and the post conflates two separate assets. But commissioning is not selling: the company states it has “not commenced sales of neo magnets.” See the dedicated row below."},{"verdict":"Overstated","claim":"Perpetua controls the only major domestic reserve of antimony","assessment":"Stibnite is the largest known US antimony resource and is expected to cover ~35% of US demand in its first six years, so the thrust is fair. Omitted: it is predominantly a gold mine — ~4.8Moz reserves, ~450koz a year — and first production is 2029. Antimony goes into flame retardants and munitions, not magnets."},{"verdict":"Out of date","claim":"Lynas is now building a US processing facility to fill the gap","assessment":"It is not currently building one. On 16 March 2026 the US government redirected the US$96m allocated to the Seadrift, Texas heavy rare-earth plant into a four-year agreement to buy Lynas product instead. The genuine 2026 development is that Lynas became the first commercial producer of separated dysprosium and terbium outside China."},{"verdict":"Wrong","claim":"\"Trump just signed a 15% tariff on Chinese materials\"","assessment":"The 6 August 2026 Section 232 proclamation puts a 15% tariff on polysilicon and its derivatives — a solar and semiconductor input, with minimum import prices attached, effective December. It is not a rare-earth tariff and not a broad materials tariff. It has essentially no bearing on any of the five minerals names listed under it."},{"verdict":"Not investable","claim":"Proterial listed among \"publicly traded material & magnet producers\"","assessment":"Proterial has been private since October 2022, when a Bain Capital-led consortium completed a ~$7.5bn take-private of Hitachi Metals and the shares were delisted. Three of the six magnet names in that summary — Proterial, Niron and Noveon — cannot be bought at all, and a fourth, Arnold, only through its parent. Screening lists routinely mix public and private companies without flagging it."},{"verdict":"Overtaken","claim":"\"Ambarella beats Q2 EPS, revenue in line — shares edge higher\" (3 Sep 2026)","assessment":"The beat is right: $108.1m against $107.75m expected, non-GAAP EPS $0.18 against $0.17. The share-price half was written off the first post-market prints and did not survive the evening. Ambarella opened the extended session at $64.50, up 1.8% on a $63.38 close, then gave the whole move back to finish at $61.24 — down 3.4%. A second wire, filed later, ran the opposite headline. Neither is a forecast; they are the same session read at different minutes, and only one of them is still true. Reaction headlines pinned to a single early print are not evidence of how a print was received."},{"verdict":"Overtaken","claim":"\"Japan Stock Market Today, September 8: Nikkei 225 gains 0.4% while Topix falls 0.6%\"","assessment":"A mid-session snapshot filed as the day's market report. The index was at 66,615 when the piece was written; it closed at 65,269.33, down 1.70% — so the headline has the day the wrong way round by more than two points. The article's own list of fallers was already arguing with it: Murata −4.8%, Taiyo Yuden −5.4%, Toyota −3.2%, Sony −2.7% against a supposedly rising index. It matters here because four of the six tier-one names price in Tokyo, and the index print is the tape their moves get read against. This is the second such figure this page has had to correct — the first was 19 August's widely repeated \"Nikkei −2.64%\" against an actual −3.16% — which is why index moves are checked against the index's own close and not against the coverage of it."},{"verdict":"Context missing","claim":"\"Trump's administration is cutting China out of the US materials supply chain\"","assessment":"Directionally real, but the operative deadline is 1 January 2027, when defence sourcing rules bar Chinese-origin NdFeB magnets, tungsten and tantalum across the supply chain. That is a defence-procurement rule, not a commercial-robotics one — a humanoid built for a warehouse is not covered."},{"verdict":"Half right","claim":"“Rare earth stocks tumble on U.S.–China thaw hopes: USA Rare Earth sinks 4%, MP Materials drops 5%” (10 Sep 2026)","assessment":"One fault stands; the other this page has had to withdraw. The figures are a mid-session snapshot filed as the day's move — the piece is stamped 12:41pm ET, and by the close USA Rare Earth was down 5.98% to $16.04 and MP 5.49% to $51.32. That half is still wrong. On the cause, this page overreached. It argued the driver was purely a rates event — August producer prices a tenth above forecast, a $6bn Treasury buyback under what dealers had positioned for, the ten-year at 4.94%, silver −5.3%, the gold miners −3.5% — and that a summit date fixed since 23 July could not be news on the day. The macro leg was real and is not in question. The next session settled the rest: on 11 September the whole complex reversed, the S&P up 0.86%, gold up 0.6% and the gold miners up 1.1%, and the rare-earth names fell again regardless — REMX −2.6%, USA Rare Earth −3.0%, MP −1.6%, Lynas −2.2%. A liquidation that has already reversed cannot explain a second day of selling. So there is a sector-specific leg, it outlived the macro one, and ruling the coverage's driver out altogether was wrong. What survives is the narrower lesson, and it cuts both ways: a mid-session print is not a close, and a same-day cause asserted without a same-day disclosure is inference rather than evidence — including when the inference is this page's own."},{"verdict":"Overtaken","claim":"“Nikkei 225 Falls Today, September 14: Japanese Benchmark Drops 1.7%” (14 Sep 2026)","assessment":"The third mid-session index print this page has had to correct, and the second from the same outlet. The Nikkei 225 closed at 63,492.99, down 0.81%. The 1.7% figure — and the “below 63,000” and “six-week low” framing attached to it — belongs to the opening half-hour: the index bottomed at 62,810.29 at 09:25 and then spent the whole afternoon between 63,300 and 63,600. The piece is stamped 10:04 IST, about two hours before the Tokyo close, and its own third paragraph contradicts the headline, putting the index “around 63,364 points, down approximately 1.01%”. A Reuters-sourced wrap the same day carried 62,979.17 and −1.61%, also a morning level. The close is corroborated twice over: the two Tokyo-listed Nikkei 225 ETFs, 1321.T and 1330.T, fell 0.59% and 0.69%, which no 1.6% index day produces. It matters more than the arithmetic: four of the six tier-one names price in Tokyo, and “flat against an index down 0.8%” is a different observation from “outperformed an index down 1.7% by a point”. Always in the same direction — the mid-session number is the more dramatic one, and it is the one that gets filed."},{"verdict":"Wrong","claim":"“Nikkei 225 Today, September 15: Japan Stock Market Rises 0.4% Above 63,700 As Tech Stocks Rebound” (15 Sep 2026)","assessment":"The fourth mid-session index print this page has had to correct, and the third from the same outlet — two of them on consecutive sessions. The Nikkei 225 closed at 63,484.10, down 8.89 points, −0.01%. Flat, not up 0.4%, and the direction is wrong as well as the size. The piece is stamped 09:55:02 IST, which is 13:25 in Tokyo, an hour and thirty-five minutes before the 15:00 close, and its body is explicit about what it is quoting: the index “stood at 63,735, up 242 points or 0.38%”. The index did trade there; it gave the whole gain back by the bell. The two Tokyo-listed Nikkei 225 ETFs settle it exactly as before — 1321.T closed −0.03% and 1330.T −0.12%, which no +0.4% index day produces. A second aggregator carried the same session as 63,850 and +0.56%, also a level from before the close. Four of these now, from three different filers, and the failure mode has never once varied: an intraday quote is published under a headline that describes the day. For a page where four of the six tier-one names price in Tokyo, the index a reader is handed decides whether “flat” counts as strength or weakness — and on 15 September the honest answer was that Tokyo did nothing at all."},{"verdict":"Wrong","claim":"“Nabtesco announced the acquisition of Harmonic Drive Systems, strengthening its precision gear portfolio for humanoid robot actuators”","assessment":"No such transaction exists, and the truth runs the other way. The two companies did integrate their strain-wave gear businesses into a US joint venture in 2006, and Nabtesco took Harmonic Drive to equity-method affiliate status in 2008 — but Nabtesco dissolved that relationship in 2021, removing Harmonic Drive from its equity-method affiliates and booking a valuation gain on the shares. Both remain separately listed in Tokyo today; 6324.T and 6268.T are the two largest positions on this page's tier one and they are not related parties. Neither company has filed anything resembling a merger, and the tape agrees: Harmonic Drive traded +0.3% on the day the claim was circulating, which is not what a takeover of a ¥500bn company looks like. The claim traces to a single market-research “forecast report” page, which carries a second invented event alongside it — a Yaskawa–Siemens tie-up to co-develop servo gear reducers, for which neither company has issued a release. Two fabricated corporate actions on one page is a source-quality signal, not a pair of unlucky errors. It matters here because the whole structure of tier one assumes these are independent suppliers: if the gear duopoly had consolidated, the diversification argument on this page would be wrong."},{"verdict":"Misattributed","claim":"“Nidec faces potential write-downs amounting to ¥250bn ($1.6bn) as a result” of the quality investigation (Sept 2026)","assessment":"The number is real; the attribution is not, and the two Nidec investigations are being welded together. Nidec's 4 September quality report states the opposite of this on its own terms: its evaluation of individual matters “revealed no issue with any material impact on the Company's consolidated and other financial statements.” The ¥250bn belongs to the separate accounting strand, where Nidec discloses it not as a write-down taken but as an amount subject to examination for possible additional impairment, mainly on automotive-related goodwill and fixed assets. The figure genuinely booked from that strand is a ¥160.7bn expected reduction in consolidated net assets. So a contingent exposure under review in one investigation is being reported as a realised write-down caused by the other. The confirmed count from the quality report is 844 cases over about a decade, mostly unapproved changes to materials and processes, with falsified tests and country-of-origin mislabelling among them. Both strands matter here — but one is a governance problem with a filing deadline, and the other is a ¥250bn question mark over the automotive book, and a reader who merges them gets the size of neither right."},{"verdict":"Overstated","claim":"“USA Rare Earth began filling customer orders for sintered NdFeB magnets at Stillwater in Q2 2026” — a claim this page itself carried","assessment":"Commissioned, yes. Selling, no — and the company says so twice. The Q2 10-Q filed 10 August 2026 states that the Stillwater facility “has recently been commissioned and has commenced commercial production; however, we have not begun generating revenue from sintered neodymium-iron-boron (‘NdFeB’) permanent magnets.” The risk-factor supplement filed on 15 September 2026 is blunter still: Stillwater and Blacksburg “are under development and are not yet completed, we have not commenced sales of neo magnets,” and “we have not realized any revenues to date from the sale of neo magnets, critical minerals or rare earth minerals.” The quarter's $5.8m of revenue, which reads on this page and elsewhere as evidence of magnet sales, is nothing of the kind: the 10-Q attributes it “all” to Less Common Metals, the Cheshire subsidiary acquired in November 2025, and its own disaggregation note says every dollar of company revenue “is derived from sales of casting and strip casting” — booked at a gross loss of $1.6m. So the correct statement is narrow: a magnet line exists, is commissioned and is producing; no magnet has been sold, and the 600 mtpa figure is guidance for end-Q4 2026 rather than an achieved run-rate. This page had the stronger version in three places and has corrected all of them. It matters because USAR is one of only two names here that make finished magnets, and the entire tier-two case rests on whether ex-China magnet tonnage is arriving or merely announced."},{"verdict":"Context missing","claim":"“The robotics basket's correlation to REMX is 0.41” — this page, through 16 September 2026","assessment":"The figure was real but under-specified, and under-specified is not reproducible. On the stated window — 104 ISO-week-aligned weekly returns to the week ended 11 September 2026, primary listings throughout — an equal-weighted basket rebalanced weekly, meaning the mean of the six names' weekly returns, gives 0.3889. The same six names held without rebalancing give 0.4068. Both bucketing methods agree to four decimal places on each, so this is not a data problem; it is two different definitions of “equal-weighted basket,” and the page never said which it meant. The ambiguity surfaced because the published figure could not be rebuilt from the method note: swept across window lengths from 100 to 106 returns and end weeks 36 to 38, the rebalanced construction stays inside 0.363–0.398 and never reaches 0.41. A third check found a related slip — a two-year daily request yields at most 103 weekly returns, not the 104 this page claimed, so the window now comes from a three-year request. The page publishes the weekly-rebalanced figure, 0.39, and names the construction. No conclusion changes at either value; what changes is that a reader can now reproduce it."},{"verdict":"Wrong","claim":"“Japan’s JP225 rose to 65,665 points on 24 September 2026, gaining 0.99%”","assessment":"That is a late-session print, not a close, and the distinction cost roughly a quarter of the day’s reported gain. The Nikkei 225 closed 65,513.99 on 24 September, +0.76% and 495.04 points above 18 September’s 65,018.95 — verified two ways, from the daily bar whose quote metadata is stamped 15:45 JST, and from the five-minute series whose final print is 15:30 at the same 65,513.99 with previousClose at 65,018.95. The index was indeed near 65,650–65,680 at 15:10–15:25 and reached 66,249.11 intraday, +1.89%; the closing auction then took about 130 points out in the last five minutes. This is the second Nikkei figure to fail this check, after a press report of −2.64% on 19 August against an actual −3.16%, and the third instance on this page of a widely-quoted number turning out to be a continuous-trading print rather than a settlement. Check an index against the index, and check it at its close."},{"verdict":"Context missing","claim":"“China rare earth magnet exports drop 21% before trade talks” (circulating 21–22 September 2026)","assessment":"The 21% is real and the framing is not: it is US-bound shipments only. China exported 512 tonnes of rare-earth permanent magnets to the United States in August, down from 647 tonnes in July, on customs data released 20 September. China’s total magnet exports that month were 5,010 tonnes, down 6% month on month and 18% year on year. Dropping “to the US” turns a 6% decline into a 21% one and makes a bilateral licensing signal read as a collapse in global supply — a distinction that matters directly to tier two, because the US-bound figure is the one the scarcity thesis rests on and the global figure is the one magnet prices respond to. The underlying article states the scope correctly in its first sentence; the syndicated headline does not. The same piece dates the Trump–Xi meeting to 25 September, which is a day late: Xi’s state visit ran 23–25 September and the leaders met on the 24th."},{"verdict":"Misattributed","claim":"“Critical Metals Surges 25% as Greenland Security Pact Puts Tanbreez Rare Earth Permit in Focus; USA Rare Earth Climbs 6%, MP Materials Rises 4%” (21 September 2026)","assessment":"The session is real, the attribution is loose and the two figures are intraday prints. Trump announced on 18 September an agreement with Denmark and Greenland giving the United States “permanent control over security” on the island, and the rare-earth complex was bid when New York reopened on Monday. But USA Rare Earth owns nothing in Greenland: its assets are Round Top in West Texas, the Stillwater magnet line in Oklahoma, the Blacksburg site in South Carolina, Less Common Metals in Cheshire, a minority stake in Carester in France and Serra Verde in Goiás, Brazil. A security treaty over Greenland changes none of them, so a nine-per-cent move in USAR is sector momentum on a policy headline, not exposure being repriced — and treating it as the latter is the same error this page's whole tier-two section exists to refuse. The figures are wrong too, in the ordinary way: measured on closes, USAR rose 9.2% to $16.78 and MP 5.8% to $50.00, against the “6%” and “4%” in the headline. Those are prints taken while the session was still open, published as the day's move. This page prices the last completed close for exactly this reason."},{"verdict":"Context missing","claim":"“Over the past four weeks REMX is 11.0% lower while the basket has fallen 5.2%” — this page, through 17 September 2026","assessment":"The second number cannot be rebuilt, which makes it the same fault as the 0.41 correlation one row up, in a different column. On the figures that run published — Tokyo at 17 September, Xetra and the US at 16 September — an equal-weighted basket of the six tier-one names gives −8.4% on the 30-day lookback the table's 1m column uses, −4.2% on a 28-day lookback, −4.5% as a geometric mean of the same six ratios and −10.6% as a weekly-rebalanced four-week compound. None of them is 5.2%, and the REMX figure it was set against was computed on a 28-day lookback while the tables alongside it used 30 days. So two numbers presented as a comparison were measured over different windows, and one of them on no stated construction at all. The page now uses a single stated construction for it — the mean of the six names' own 1m cells, equal-weighted and unrebalanced, each on its own venue's 30-day lookback — which puts the basket at −1.0% against REMX's −13.0% on the same basis. The conclusion is unchanged and in fact strengthened; what changes is that both halves are now measured the same way and can be checked against the table."},{"verdict":"Wrong","claim":"“Nidec has disclosed nothing at all since 4 September” — this page, accurate from 6 September, false from 10, repeated to 25 September 2026","assessment":"True when written, false when repeated, and the thing it was missing was the most consequential disclosure on this name since the quality report. On 9 September 2026 a shareholder instituted a derivative action in the Kyoto District Court against two former directors, founder Shigenobu Nagamori and Hiroshi Kobe, demanding they pay the company ¥28,730,558,300 plus delinquent charges under Article 462, paragraph 1 of the Companies Act over the treasury-share buybacks of September 2022 and February–March 2023 and the December 2022 midterm dividend. Nidec disclosed it on 10 September, at which point this page's standing line stopped being accurate. It was nonetheless carried for another fifteen days, and an argument was built on it — that the stock was being repriced purely on interpretation because there was no new information — while the largest single gain anywhere on the page, +5.6% on 10 September, landed on the day the suit became public. The conclusion happens to survive, because a ¥28.7bn claim against two individuals is not what moved a ¥2,700 stock up 5.6% and nothing in the tape suggests it was read at all. But it survives by luck rather than by method: from 10 September the premise was false and was checkable on the company's own disclosure page. The lesson is specific to negative claims. “Nothing has been disclosed” is not a background condition that stays true until someone notices otherwise; it is an assertion about the record with a silent expiry date, and restating it on day fifteen is a new claim requiring the same check as on day one. This page audits press coverage for exactly this and had been reprinting its own unverified line while doing so."},{"verdict":"Wrong","claim":"“The only analyst action on the tape is a week old — Jefferies cutting its target to €8.70 while keeping a Buy” — this page, on the Schaeffler session of 24 September, published 25 September 2026","assessment":"Wrong on the date, and the date was the whole load-bearing part. Jefferies cut Schaeffler to €8.70 from €9.45 on 23 September 2026 — one session before the −6.2% move, not a week. The error has a clear mechanism: there were two notes from the same analyst, Vanessa Jeffriess, and this page merged them. On 5 August 2026 Jefferies went €10.45 to €9.45; on 23 September 2026 it went €9.45 to €8.70. The target quoted came from the September note, the age from the August one, and the two spliced together produced a catalyst that could be set aside as stale. It was not stale. The September note kept a Buy, said Schaeffler’s own reduction of its 2028 targets had damaged credibility, credited the company with self-help potential, and called the non-automotive robotics business the most attractive investment story in the sector. Against the Xetra line the sequence is unambiguous: −2.24% to €6.97 on 23 September, the session of the note, which contemporaneous German coverage headlined as the stock falling on the Jefferies cut; −6.17% to €6.54 on 24 September; +1.38% to €6.63 on 25 September. So two claims on this page need separating. The conclusion that no disclosure explains the 6.2% session survives — a one-day-old target cut does not ordinarily deliver its damage on the second day, and nothing else was published. But the 23 September fall, which this page attributed to the dollar-led metals liquidation that took the minerals tier down, is far better explained by the note: a German bearing and auto-parts supplier is not a rare-earth proxy, and that attribution was co-timing dressed as cause. The failure mode is worth naming separately from the Nidec row above. That one was a negative claim repeated past its expiry; this one is a dismissal — the relevant item was found, misdated, and discarded for being old. Both come from the same habit of inheriting a characterisation instead of re-reading the source, and on a page whose method note insists every figure be dated, an analyst note is a dated document like any other."}],"catalysts":[{"title":"Order books, not forecasts","detail":"Harmonic Drive's quarterly humanoid order figure and Ambarella's robotics design wins are the only two disclosures on this list that convert narrative into countable units. Everything else is guidance."},{"title":"1 January 2027","detail":"US defence sourcing rules bar Chinese-origin NdFeB magnets, tungsten, molybdenum and tantalum across the supply chain. This is the date the minerals tier is actually trading on."},{"title":"Nidec, 30 September","detail":"The quality report landed on 4 September and found no material financial impact. The accounting strand has a hard date: the filing deadline for the annual securities report for the year ended March 2026 was extended on 30 June from 30 June to 30 September. Either the restated accounts arrive inside three days or the extension becomes the story. The April–June quarter behind them is still missing — and the stock has meanwhile closed within 3.4% of a 52-week high."},{"title":"Price floors spreading to Dy/Tb","detail":"Chinese NdPr oxide has fallen below the $110/kg DoD-backed Western floor. The 24 August USA Rare Earth SPV extends guaranteed floors to dysprosium and terbium for the first time — watch whether the next deal does too. Floors are bullish REMX and a cost headwind for the component makers."},{"title":"The 2027 volume ramp","detail":"The entire thesis assumes humanoid volumes inflect from 2027. Safety standards are not expected until around 2028, and the projected NdPr deficit widens to 21,000 tonnes by then. Slippage hits the tier-one names first."},{"title":"Segment disclosure","detail":"Schaeffler breaking out actuators, or Ambarella breaking out robotics, would let this watchlist be priced on robotics revenue instead of inference. Neither does today."},{"title":"Western magnet tonnage","detail":"MP's magnetics revenue and USA Rare Earth's 600 mtpa target are the two live measures of whether ex-China magnet supply is actually materialising — and only one of them is yet a revenue line at all, because USAR states it has not commenced sales of neo magnets. Both report quarterly; both are currently small enough to verify claim against invoice. The announced pipeline behind them grew again on 9 September, when USAR broke ground at Blacksburg, South Carolina on 6,400 tpa of sintered NdFeB for 2028 — bigger than Stillwater's full build, and still a groundbreaking rather than a tonne."},{"title":"Greenland, from headline to permit","detail":"The 18 September US–Denmark–Greenland security agreement repriced the rare-earth tape in one session without adding a tonne of capacity. Greenland has no scaled rare-earth mine, and the named projects need permits, infrastructure and local consent. Watch whether a permit or an offtake actually follows; until one does, this is a policy premium on the whole tier, and the names here with no Greenland exposure at all caught most of it."},{"title":"Iron nitride at scale","detail":"Niron's Sartell plant, backed by a conditional $150m Department of War loan and a matching $150m tribal loan, raised first steel on 10 September and targets 1,500 t/yr from 2027, with a 10,000 t/yr follow-on breaking ground in 2028. Honda has now taken equity alongside the state money. A working rare-earth-free magnet at volume does not help tier one much — it undercuts tier two."},{"title":"24 September, then 10 November","detail":"Xi met Trump at the White House on 24 September, arriving at Joint Base Andrews the day before for a 23–25 September state visit — and the second date moved before the meeting did. On 23 September Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Busan Agreement, due to lapse on 10 November, would be extended to 10 January 2027, adding that whether a broader deal lands by then “was not yet clear”. Removing the November cliff edge removes the nearest hard catalyst under the scarcity premium, and the tier repriced for it in the same session: USA Rare Earth −6.8%, MP −4.2%, REMX −3.1%, with the Asian rare-earth names following on 24 September. Tier two now trades both ways off these: a durable arrangement erodes the scarcity premium, a lapse restores it, and an extension merely moves the date the question gets asked. Beijing blacklisted MP and USA Rare Earth in June 2026 and MP fell ~30% through July; further list additions remain the clearest downside catalyst, and barely register in tier one. One counter-current to the thaw trade, reported by Reuters on 4 September: some Chinese suppliers have refused US shipments since early August, after Beijing sanctioned the Responsible Business Alliance, and some US buyers have waited over six months for licences. The physical market was tightening in the same fortnight the equity premium compressed, and it still is: China shipped 512 tonnes of magnets to the United States in August, 21% fewer than in July, while its total magnet exports fell only 6%, to 5,010 tonnes. An extension of the truce is not a resumption of licences."}],"latest":[{"date":"2026-09-27","dateLabel":"27 Sep 2026","paragraphs":["The widest drawdown on this page was blamed on nothing for two days, and the catalyst was sitting one session away the whole time: Jefferies cut Schaeffler to €8.70 on 23 September, and this page dated that note to a week earlier. Nothing traded anywhere on this page over the weekend, so there are no new closes, correlations or column moves below, and the news pass across all three tiers found no company disclosure since Friday — Nidec, MP, USA Rare Earth, Lynas, Perpetua, Novonix, Niron, TDK, Aichi and Compass all quiet. What the pass did turn up is an error of this page's own. On 25 September it described Schaeffler's −6.2% session as unexplained and added that “the only analyst action on the tape is a week old — Jefferies cutting its target to €8.70 while keeping a Buy.” Both halves cannot be true at once, and the dating is the part that is wrong. There were two Jefferies notes: 5 August, €10.45 to €9.45, and 23 September, €9.45 to €8.70. The page took the target from the September note and the age from the August one, and so retired as stale a catalyst that was one day old. Analyst Vanessa Jeffriess kept a Buy and wrote that Schaeffler's own reduction of its 2028 targets had damaged credibility — while calling the non-automotive robotics business the most attractive investment story in the sector, which is this page's thesis coming back in the mouth of the note that cut the target. Checked against the instrument, the sequence is clean: −2.24% to €6.97 on 23 September, the day of the note and the move contemporaneous German coverage attributes to it, then −6.17% to €6.54 on 24 September, then +1.38% to €6.63 on 25 September. Two sessions, −8.3%, €7.13 to €6.54. The second leg is still larger than a one-day-old target cut comfortably explains, so the caution this page kept was right in substance; but it had also assigned the 23 September fall to a dollar-led metals liquidation, which is a poor fit for a German bearing maker and is now superseded by a dated, named, corroborated cause. The claim audit takes its twenty-eighth row and the fifth against itself. The lesson is narrower than Friday's and worth separating from it: that one was a negative claim outliving its expiry, this one is a dismissal — a catalyst found, misdated, and filed away as too old to matter. Reaching for “a week old” from memory rather than reading the date off the note is how a live cause gets retired, and the check that would have caught it costs one click."]},{"date":"2026-09-26","dateLabel":"26 Sep 2026","paragraphs":["A weekend news pass found the disclosure this page has spent three weeks saying did not exist: a shareholder is suing Nidec's founder for ¥28.7bn, and it was filed on 9 September. No market anywhere on this page traded on Saturday, so there are no new closes, correlations or column moves below — and the one thing that did change is a correction rather than a price. An individual shareholder instituted a derivative action in the Kyoto District Court (case 1749 of 2026) against two former directors, founder Shigenobu Nagamori and Hiroshi Kobe, demanding ¥28,730,558,300 plus delinquent charges under Article 462, paragraph 1 of the Companies Act. Nidec disclosed it on 10 September. The legal basis is the interesting part, because it is not the duty-of-care claim the August shareholder demands were pointing at: Article 462 is the capital-maintenance provision, and the suit says three specific capital returns — the treasury-share buybacks of September 2022 and February–March 2023, and the December 2022 midterm dividend — exceeded the distributable amount. That is the restatement arriving as a liability with a number on it. Restate those years downward and the distributable amount shrinks retroactively, which is what makes capital already paid out unlawful after the fact, so the filing due on 30 September — now four days away — is also the document that sizes this claim. Nidec says a suit against individuals will not affect its business performance, which is right about the P&L and beside the point about governance. Two things follow for this page. The claim audit takes a row against itself, its twenty-seventh and the fourth of its own. The interesting part is that “nothing disclosed since 4 September” was true when first written — it stopped being true on 10 September, and was then repeated for fifteen days after it expired. That is a different failure from getting a number wrong: a negative claim carries a silent expiry date, and every repetition of it is a fresh assertion about the disclosure record that has to be re-checked rather than inherited from the previous day's copy. And the argument built on it — that Nidec was being repriced on interpretation rather than information — survives, but by luck: the largest single gain anywhere on this page, +5.6% on 10 September, fell on the day the suit became public, and nothing in that session's tape suggests a ¥28.7bn claim against two individuals was what bid a ¥2,700 stock up five and a half points."]},{"date":"2026-09-25","dateLabel":"25 Sep 2026","paragraphs":["Schaeffler fell 6.2% to €6.54, its worst session since 31 July and its lowest close since 26 November 2025 — and nothing the company published explains it. The sector leg is real but too small to carry it: the DAX closed −0.57% at 25,266.53 with insurers and carmakers the worst of it as Bund yields reached a 2007 high and Brent went back above $100, and the biggest names in that move fell a third as far — BMW −2.4%, Volkswagen −2.2%. The tape shows no gap and no headline moment: €6.84 at the open, €6.75 by 10:30, then a slow grind that accelerated through the last ninety minutes, €6.73 at 15:00 to €6.54 at 17:00, on 1.33m shares against 394k on Monday. No company announcement accompanied it. [Corrected 27 Sep: the analyst action was one day old, not a week — Jefferies cut its target to €8.70 on 23 September, the session before this one. The claim audit carries the error.] So the honest description is a sector leg plus a name-specific leg that this page could not source on the day but which followed a one-day-old target cut, and by the rule the claim audit keeps restating, a same-day cause asserted without a same-day disclosure is inference rather than evidence. What is not in doubt is the damage: the month now reads 13.6% lower, the year 21.8% lower, and the drawdown 45.4% — the widest on the tier.","Tokyo did the exact opposite of the day before, and every robotics name on the page lagged it. The Nikkei closed +1.30% at 66,364.20 — corroborated by the two Tokyo-listed index ETFs, 1321.T +1.28% and 1330.T +1.29% — its best session since 18 September, though still below 7 September's 66,399.84 and a long way under the 25 June peak of 72,366.34. All six Tokyo names underperformed it, and three fell outright: TDK +0.8% to ¥2,978, Nabtesco +0.7% to ¥4,792 — its highest close since 17 August — Nidec +0.6% to ¥2,840, Aichi Steel −0.2% to ¥3,225, Yaskawa −0.6% to ¥4,480, Harmonic Drive −0.8% to ¥6,300. Twenty-four hours earlier the same six had beaten a +0.76% index by two to three points each. Neither session came from a company; the index did the work both times, in opposite directions, which is the whole caution this page keeps repeating about reading Tokyo beta as a humanoid signal. Nidec now has five days to the 30 September filing deadline with nothing further disclosed on that strand, and at 3.4% off its high it still carries the tightest drawdown on the page.","The US tier split, and the rare-earth leg kept going without a dollar move to blame. REMX fell 2.7% to $66.93, its worst session since 10 September and its lowest close since 31 July, with the dollar index merely holding above 101 rather than surging. Novonix fell 5.7% to $2.64, the lowest close in its three-year series — the 52-week intraday low is $2.52 — and its ASX primary closed at A$0.098, a ninth consecutive session below the A$0.12 floor. USA Rare Earth fell 2.8% to $15.38 and Lynas 1.2% to $9.94, its lowest since 17 September. Against them, two names went the other way: MP +0.8% to $49.30 and Perpetua +0.4% to $23.42 — and the Perpetua attribution is the reverse of the usual one, because the gold miners fell 1.3% and bullion 0.3% that session, so for once it outperformed gold rather than amplifying it. No company disclosure on either. Ambarella rose 3.3% to $69.86, its best session since 21 September and its highest close since 28 August, again with nothing from the company — sector beta, as this page has now concluded in both directions."]},{"date":"2026-09-24","dateLabel":"24 Sep 2026","paragraphs":["Harmonic Drive's twelve-month column gained twenty-seven points on a session the stock rose two and a half, and it is the largest column move this page has recorded. Tokyo reopened after three days shut and the stock closed +2.4% at ¥6,350, its highest since 17 August. The twelve-month cell went from +95.9% to +123.0% — eleven times the price move — because a three-session holiday rolls the lookback base six calendar days in one step, off 18 September 2025's ¥3,165 onto 24 September 2025's ¥2,847, a base 10.0% lower. Six days ago the same column on the same stock fell twenty-one points for the same reason with the sign reversed. A closed exchange does not pause the denominator, and a column measured against a date the market did not trade through moves hardest when it reopens.","Tokyo came back bid, and Nidec was the only name that did not. The Nikkei closed +0.76% at 65,513.99 — well off an intraday high of 66,249.11, +1.89% — and the robotics names beat it by a wide margin: TDK +3.9% to ¥2,954.5, the largest gain anywhere on this page and its best close since 7 September; Nabtesco +3.0% to ¥4,759, its highest since 17 August; Yaskawa +2.8% to ¥4,507, its highest since 7 September; Harmonic Drive +2.4%. Aichi Steel closed unchanged at ¥3,230, to the yen. Nidec fell 1.2% to ¥2,822, the only Tokyo faller on the page, and it now has six days to the 30 September filing deadline for the annual securities report it has already had extended once, and nothing further disclosed on that strand. Three of those four gains landed on names whose last company news is weeks old; a reopening is not a gearbox event either.","The minerals tier had the opposite session, and the rare-earth-specific part of it is smaller than the headline suggests. On 23 September hawkish remarks from the St Louis and Chicago Fed presidents put the dollar index back above 100 and December hike odds near 90%, and the whole metals complex was liquidated: bullion −1.8%, silver −4.2%, the gold miners −4.4%, the S&P −0.8%. Running through the same session, from 11:40 ET onward, were Treasury Secretary Bessent's remarks that the Busan Agreement — due to lapse on 10 November — would be extended to 10 January, with Xi landing at Joint Base Andrews that afternoon. Both readings are in the tape and they are separable by size. REMX fell 3.1% to $68.76, its lowest close since 16 September — less than the gold miners fell, so the metals liquidation alone accounts for the ETF. What it does not account for is USA Rare Earth −6.8% to $15.83 and MP Materials −4.2% to $48.89, both lowest since 18 September and both beyond the complex they sit in. Perpetua fell 5.8% to $23.32 and that one is a gold equity doing its ordinary job — the miners −4.4%, Perpetua amplifying them mildly, no antimony in it and no company disclosure. Lynas's ADR eased 2.6% to $10.06 and Novonix 3.4% to $2.801, its lowest since 9 September. Four columns crossed a sign on the day: USA Rare Earth's twelve-month return from +5.7% to −11.3% and Lynas's from +1.0% to −8.1%, both pushed most of the way by year-ago bases rolling up; and the two year-to-date cells that crossed above zero on 22 September — MP and Perpetua — crossed straight back below it, to −3.2% and −3.7%. On the four-week view the split is now at its widest in this run: the robotics basket +0.3%, REMX 13.8% lower."]},{"date":"2026-09-23","dateLabel":"23 Sep 2026","paragraphs":["Ambarella's twelve-month column fell seven and a half points on a day the stock fell two and a half. The stock closed −2.6% at $67.06 on 22 September, giving back most of the previous session's chip rally, and the 1y cell went from −17.0% to −24.5% — a move five times the size of the price change. The base is why: the lookback rolled off 19 September 2025's $82.93 onto 22 September 2025's $88.81, a +7.1% session a year ago entering the comparison in one step. That is the third column on this page in eight days to move mostly on its own base rather than on price, after Harmonic Drive's twelve-month cell lost twenty-one points on 18 September and Ambarella's own four-week cell gained thirteen and a half on 21 September. Read every dated column here as a statement about two dates.","The only move above 4% was a gold move, and it was not about antimony. Perpetua rose +4.6% to $24.76, the largest single gain anywhere on this page, and the attribution is the one this page keeps having to make about this name: the gold miners rose 3.6% that session (GDX) while bullion itself went up about 0.4% — SPDR Gold Shares +0.42%, iShares Gold Trust +0.44% — so Perpetua moved with the miners' leverage to gold, not with the antimony thesis and not on any company disclosure, of which there was none. Note also what the futures line said: GC=F printed −0.17% on the same session, disagreeing with both bullion ETFs by about six tenths of a point, which is the same reason this page stopped pricing gold off that contract on 4 September. Two YTD columns crossed back above zero on the day: Perpetua to +2.3% from −2.2%, and MP Materials to +1.0% from −1.0%. The rest of the minerals tier was bid but led nothing — Lynas +3.1% to $10.33, MP +2.1% to $51.04, USA Rare Earth +1.3% to $16.99, REMX +1.0% to $70.97 — and on the four-week view the tier is still the weaker half, REMX 12.1% lower against 1.1% for the robotics basket.","A missing German bar taught the procedure a new clause, and the old procedure would have been wrong by three cents. Schaeffler's 21 September bar backfilled at exactly €6.99 — the thirteenth reconstruction confirmed to the cent — and the feed immediately swallowed 22 September instead. This one did not close the usual way. The five-, fifteen- and sixty-minute series all stop at 17:25 showing €7.16, the extended-hours request returned no 17:30 auction bar at all, and regularMarketPrice carried a live 23 September quote because Xetra had already reopened. previousClose and chartPreviousClose both read €7.13 and held across four differently-shaped requests, so €7.13 is the close and €7.16 is the last continuous print before the auction. Taking the intraday series at face value, as this page has done on days when it did carry the auction, would have published a +2.4% session instead of +2.0%. Fourteen holes, fourteen reconstructions, thirteen confirmed, one outstanding."]}],"method":["Prices are last closes from Yahoo Finance chart data, taken as the most recent completed session in each venue, which means the as-of date usually differs by market. The ordinary weekday shape holds this run: Tokyo and the ASX are 25 Sep 2026, both closed before this refresh ran, while Xetra and the US are both 24 Sep 2026, because a 07:00 UTC refresh reaches them before either has opened. Japan's three-day holiday has now washed out of the comparisons — the Tokyo Stock Exchange was shut on 21, 22 and 23 September, which jumped the Tokyo figures from 18 straight to 24 September last run and rolled every Tokyo lookback base six calendar days in one step. This run the Tokyo bases advance one session like everything else, so the columns move on the tape again rather than on the calendar. A venue date is still not a page date; read each column against its own. One trap, recorded on 19 Aug 2026: Yahoo’s daily bar array can lag a venue’s latest close, and that afternoon it still ended at the 18 August Tokyo session while the quote metadata already carried the 19 August close. Taking the bars at face value would have shown Harmonic Drive at ¥5,960 rather than ¥5,670, understating the fall by about five percentage points. The German feed keeps swallowing sessions, and the running tally is the argument for the method rather than against it. Last run's hole, 23 September, has backfilled at exactly €6.97 — the fifteenth reconstruction confirmed to the cent. 24 September is the new hole and the sixteenth, and it is the best-corroborated of the series, which matters because it carried a 6.2% session rather than a quiet one. Four independent readings agree: the extended-hours five-minute request returned the 17:35 auction bar at €6.54 on 484,271 shares — roughly thirty times the volume of each preceding five-minute bar, the signature of a closing auction rather than a stray tick — previousClose on that same request read €6.54, chartPreviousClose on a one-day daily request read €6.54, and a German quote service independent of this feed carried the session at 6.540. A move that large is exactly the case where a reconstructed close should not be taken on one route. Sixteen holes, sixteen reconstructions, fifteen confirmed exactly by the vendor and one — 24 September — outstanding. The rule stands with its clause: when a German bar is missing, prefer the auction print, and where the intraday series stops short of the auction, previousClose on a request made after the venue reopens is the auction, not the last tick before it. The US feed has a per-ticker hole of its own, and unlike the German ones it has not healed: the 22 September daily bar is still missing for Ambarella, Lynas's ADR, Perpetua, Novonix, REMX, Compass Diversified and the iShares gold trust a third day on, while MP, USA Rare Earth and the SPDR gold trust continue to carry it — the same split, and mostly the same names, as the 28 August attrition recorded below. All seven were closed from previousClose, corroborated by the 15:55 five-minute bar, which agreed to the cent on five of them and sat two cents away on REMX and Compass. None of those seven feeds any figure in the tables this run, because every affected name's 1d comparison now runs off 23 September and every lookback base sits weeks earlier. The one that mattered as a check was Ambarella: it came back at exactly $67.06, the figure this page published from a live quote. The same gap hit an earlier run from the opposite direction, when the daily bars for every US name ended at 2 September while the metadata already carried the completed 3 September close. The metadata timestamp, converted to exchange-local time, is what decides whether a session is complete. Returns are computed on the local primary line, so no currency translation is embedded. This is a dated snapshot — the page cannot fetch live quotes and does not pretend to. It is refreshed daily at 07:00 UTC, and the compiled date in the masthead moves every time any content on this page changes, so that stamp is always the age of what you are reading.","28 Aug 2026: the corporate-action trap. Novonix changed its ADS ratio on 27 August, effectively a one-for-ten reverse split of the US line. Yahoo adjusted its quote metadata immediately — the 52-week high became $38.60 — but had not yet restated the daily close history, which still ran to $0.435. Read together, the two would have put Novonix 98.9% below its 52-week high, an invented 10× drawdown. Yahoo restated the history in stages, and for a fortnight put the seam in the wrong place: the 10× step sat between 21 and 24 August, three sessions before the change took effect on 27 August, so 24–26 August were carried at post-change prices they never traded at. That restatement has now completed. The whole series is on the post-change ratio, the misplaced step is gone, and a scan of two years of daily bars finds no jump larger than the two genuine ones from November 2024 and October 2025. The figures on this page were computed throughout with both sides on the post-change ratio, scaling closes at the seam the data actually contained rather than the one the corporate action implied — and they did not move when the vendor caught up, which is the only real test such a patch gets. Taken raw at the time, the same mismatch would have reported Novonix up 618% in a month, the earlier error wearing the opposite sign. Any screen mixing adjusted metadata with unadjusted bars across a corporate action produces the same class of error, silently.","A hole in the German feed, since filled. Yahoo's daily bars carried no 28 August close for any German single stock — Schaeffler, SAP, BMW and Continental all return null for that session, as do the Frankfurt, Munich, Düsseldorf and Hamburg lines, so it is one upstream gap rather than several — while the DAX index itself printed 26,570.0 that day. Taking the bars at face value would have held Schaeffler at its 27 August close of €7.35 and reported a 2.4% rise as a flat session. The €7.53 on this page is reconstructed from the intraday series for 28 August and cross-checked against an independent price history that agrees to the cent and matches Yahoo's own daily bars for 24–27 August exactly. A missing bar is not the same as an unchanged price. Yahoo backfilled the session later the same day at €7.53, matching the reconstruction to the cent.","The German hole is now a standing feature — and it heals itself, which is the useful part. It has recurred on eleven sessions since late August, and it is not Schaeffler-specific: SAP and Siemens return null for exactly the same days, so it is one upstream gap rather than a broken ticker. What has changed is that the earlier gaps have since backfilled, which turns them into a test of the patch. Yahoo now carries daily bars for 28 August and 1–4 September, and every one of them matches the figure this page reconstructed at the time to the cent: €7.53, €7.22, €7.02, €7.30 and €7.43. Five reconstructions, five exact confirmations, using two different routes — the neighbouring session's quote metadata, and the intraday series. The 7 and 8 September holes needed a third route, because both were still missing while Xetra had already opened on 9 September, so the metadata carried a live quote rather than either settlement and the standard 5-minute series stops at 17:25, before the closing auction. Requesting the 5-minute series with pre- and post-market bars included returns the auction print itself, stamped 17:35 CEST: €7.34 on 7 September and €7.43 on 8 September, the latter on 229,007 shares against a few thousand in each of the preceding bars — the volume signature of a closing auction rather than a stray tick. The 8 September bar has since backfilled at exactly €7.43, a sixth reconstruction confirmed; the 7 September bar has still not returned at all. The 9 September close, €7.40, came back a fourth way and the simplest one yet: the daily request, made before Xetra's 10 September auction, still carried 9 September's settlement in regularMarketPrice stamped 17:39 CEST, and the 5-minute request made at the same moment returned the same €7.40 in its previousClose field. Two independent fields, one figure — and the vendor has since backfilled that session at exactly €7.40, a seventh reconstruction confirmed. Taken from the bars alone the page would have carried Schaeffler at €7.43 and called a live session unchanged. 11 September behaved the same way: €7.19 in regularMarketPrice, stamped 17:35:12 CEST against a 17:30 close, while the daily bars stopped at 10 September — and that session has since backfilled at exactly €7.19, an eighth reconstruction confirmed. 14 September has since backfilled at exactly €6.95, a ninth reconstruction confirmed, and 15 September at exactly €6.78, a tenth — that one having been closed by two independent routes on the day it opened, the metadata auction stamp and the 17:35 five-minute bar on 575,656 shares, rather than after the fact. 16 September took a different second route again: €6.86 in regularMarketPrice stamped 17:38:13 CEST, with the five-minute series stopping at 17:25 and never printing the auction, so the corroboration came from previousClose on a request made after Xetra reopened — and that session has since backfilled at exactly €6.86, an eleventh reconstruction confirmed. So has 7 September, at exactly €7.34, a twelfth — the hole that stayed open for a fortnight, and the only one that needed the extended-hours request to close at all. 21 September closed the quickest of that group: the five-minute series printed the 17:30 auction at €6.99 on the day, matching regularMarketPrice at 17:35:12 CEST, and it has since backfilled at exactly €6.99, a thirteenth reconstruction confirmed. 22 September followed at exactly €7.13, a fourteenth — the most instructive of them, because the intraday series stopped at 17:25 showing €7.16 and the page took previousClose over it; had it taken the continuous print it would have published a 2.4% session rather than a 2.0% one. 23 September has now backfilled at exactly €6.97, a fifteenth. Sixteen holes, sixteen reconstructions, fifteen of them confirmed to the cent; only 24 September, the largest session of the lot at −6.2%, is outstanding — and it is the one closed on four routes rather than two. That is settled enough to be a procedure rather than a surprise — when a German bar is missing, take the auction print from the metadata timestamp and check it against a second field before believing it.","Bars that come and go. Novonix's daily history around its 27 August ADS ratio change is not stable between requests: 28 August read $3.51 at one run and had disappeared again, along with 26 and 27 August, by the next. Left alone, that would have moved the name's correlation and shown a four-session fall as a one-day move. The 28 August close is pinned to the verified figure so the series does not wobble with the feed. By 3 September the instability had spread well beyond Novonix: the whole 28 August US session had gone missing for Ambarella, REMX, Perpetua, Lynas and Compass Diversified while surviving for MP and USA Rare Earth — per-ticker attrition, not one dropped day. That has since healed. All five carry 28 August again, and Novonix's bar for it has returned at exactly $3.51, the figure this page pinned when it kept vanishing. The weekly series takes each ISO week's last available close, which absorbs this without shifting a week; where it removes a Friday, that week ends on the Thursday instead. Where a vendor's history changes underneath you, the fix is to record what you verified, not to re-derive it each run.","4 Sep 2026: a continuous futures series that is not continuous. This page has priced gold off GC=F, Yahoo's front-month gold contract, to sanity-check Perpetua's moves. That series silently rolled: GC=F now resolves to Gold Dec 26, and its own bar array still carries $4,366.3 for 2 September — the expiring contract — while the December contract closed that session at $4,414.6. Differencing across the roll would have reported a +4.0% gold session on 3 September against +1.9% for the bullion ETFs, which agree with each other to four hundredths of a point (SPDR Gold Shares +1.85%, iShares Gold Trust +1.88%). A futures move measured across a contract change is a spread, not a return. Gold figures on this page are now taken from the spot-tracking ETFs, which also settle on the same 16:00 ET clock as Perpetua and the miners they are being compared with — the earlier $4,366/oz reference has been dropped for the same reason.","Correlations use 104 completed weekly returns bucketed by ISO calendar week so Tokyo, Xetra and New York lines align despite different trading calendars. Weekly rather than daily specifically to avoid the time-zone lag that inflates or deflates cross-market daily correlation. The window runs to the completed week ended 18 Sep 2026 (ISO week 38); it was extended from 53 weeks on 14 Aug 2026, which shifted several tier-two figures down by 0.10–0.20 without changing any conclusion. The basket is equal-weighted and rebalanced weekly — the basket return for a week is the mean of the six tier-one names' returns for that week — and stating that is not pedantry, because the same six names held without rebalancing give 0.4113 against the rebalanced 0.3873. This page published 0.41 through 16 Sep 2026 without naming the construction, which made the figure impossible to rebuild from this note; the claim audit carries the full account. Every figure is cross-checked against a second bucketing method before publication, and on this run the two agreed to four decimal places on every series. The window did not move this run, and that is the expected result rather than a gap: 25 September is a Friday, ISO week 39 is still in progress and therefore excluded — Tokyo has closed its week but New York has not — so the end stays at the week ended 18 September and every correlation on this page is unchanged to four decimal places — basket-to-REMX 0.3873, Schaeffler 0.6019 to the basket, Lynas 0.6357 to REMX. Both bucketing methods were recomputed from scratch on fresh data and agreed to four decimals on all fifteen series. That is the reason a window that moves has to be re-read everywhere it is quoted rather than sampled in one place. A correction to this note while we are here: it previously said a Saturday refresh is the only one that can advance the window's end. It cannot. ISO weeks run Monday to Sunday and the in-progress week is excluded, so Saturday's run still sits inside the current week and adds nothing; the end advances on the first refresh after a Sunday, which on an ordinary schedule means Monday's. The start, separately, rolls forward on its own, which was the lesson of 16 Sep 2026. There is a request-shaped trap underneath all of it: a two-year daily request spans 105 ISO weeks including the in-progress one, which after excluding it yields 103 weekly returns, not 104. Anchoring a true 104-return window needs a three-year request, and that is how the figures here are built. The four-week comparison between the tiers uses a different construction again, and it is now stated: the basket's 1m figure is the mean of the six tier-one names' own 1m cells — equal-weighted, not rebalanced, each name on its own venue's 30-day lookback — so a reader can rebuild it from the table above. This page previously quoted 5.2% for that figure and it cannot be reproduced on any construction tried; the claim audit carries that too. Correlation measures co-movement, not causation — treat 0.39 as \"these travel together loosely,\" not as a precise constant.","A correction worth repeating, and a bigger one below it. Schaeffler's correlation to the robotics basket was originally computed on the SFFLY ADR and came out at 0.16. On the liquid Xetra line it is 0.60. Thin ADRs do not merely lag — they can invert a conclusion. Every correlation on this page now uses the primary listing.","18 Aug 2026 correction: the alignment bug. Every correlation figure this page had published through 17 Aug 2026 was computed from Yahoo's native weekly bars (interval=1wk). Those bars anchor Tokyo and Xetra weeks roughly one calendar week off from New York's — confirmed directly by comparing native bars against daily closes re-bucketed into true ISO weeks, which showed a consistent one-week offset for every Tokyo and Xetra ticker tested but not for US tickers. Because the tier-one basket is four-sixths Japanese names, this silently corrupted every cross-region figure: the robotics basket's correlation to REMX read 0.19 on the misaligned data and about 0.40 once daily closes were re-bucketed by calendar week (0.39 on the current window, weekly-rebalanced) — confirmed by two independent methods (ISO-week bucketing and Friday-anchored resampling) that agree to three decimal places. Correlations computed entirely within one region (e.g. TDK, a Tokyo name, against the mostly-Tokyo basket) barely moved, which is exactly what a same-direction shift on both sides of a comparison would produce, and is why the bug went unnoticed until a cross-region figure was checked against an independent method. Every correlation on this page, in every table, chart and paragraph, is now computed from daily closes re-bucketed into ISO calendar weeks.","Use the primary listings. The ADRs quoted in the source post are thin: HSYDF traded 200 shares in a session, YASKY 513, NCTKY 1,350. NJDCY has not printed since February. Prices on those lines can sit stale for days and will not reflect Tokyo. Where an ADR is the only access route, expect a spread.","Not investment advice. This is a research snapshot assembled from public filings, company releases and press reporting, built to check a social-media thesis rather than to endorse it."],"sources":[{"url":"https://x.com/MilkRoadAI/status/2086577616853815592","label":"Milk Road AI — humanoid supply chain post (9 Aug 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.ambarella.com/news/ambarella-launches-powerful-edge-ai-8k-vision-soc-with-industry-leading-ai-and-multi-sensor-perception-performance/","label":"Ambarella — CV7 launch, CES 2026"},{"url":"https://ambarella.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ambarella-inc-announces-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-2026","label":"Ambarella — FY2026 results"},{"url":"https://www.schaeffler.com/en/media/press-releases/press-releases-detail.jsp?id=88184987","label":"Schaeffler — Hexagon Robotics partnership"},{"url":"https://www.therobotreport.com/schaeffler-humanoid-partner-build-deploy-hundreds-robots/","label":"The Robot Report — Schaeffler robot deployment"},{"url":"https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/nidec-delays-q3-results-amid-accounting-irregularity-probe-93CH-4469763","label":"Investing.com — Nidec results delay and probe"},{"url":"https://www.nidec.com/en/corporate/internal-control-improvement/overview/","label":"Nidec — internal control investigation overview"},{"url":"https://www.nidec.com/files/user/www-nidec-com/corporate/news/2026/0417-01/260417-01en.pdf","label":"Nidec — receipt of the third-party committee’s final report on accounting (17 Apr 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/NJDCY/nidec-announces-the-disclosure-of-the-financial-results-for-the-h4pqqx2pszoe.html","label":"Nidec — Q1 FY3/27 disclosure beyond 45 days (5 Aug 2026)"},{"url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nidec-announces-request-shareholder-file-015300997.html","label":"Nidec — shareholder request to file action (5 Aug 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260821331686/en/Nidec-Announces-a-Request-by-Shareholders-to-File-an-Action","label":"Nidec — second, joint shareholder request to file action (21 Aug 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.marketscreener.com/news/nidec-announces-approval-of-an-extension-of-the-filing-deadline-of-annual-securities-report-for-the-ce7f5fdcd98bf62d","label":"Nidec — annual securities report filing deadline extended to 30 September 2026"},{"url":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/04/3356489/0/en/usa-rare-earth-completes-combination-with-serra-verde-group.html","label":"USA Rare Earth — completion of the Serra Verde combination (3 Sep 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/ambarella-at-citis-2026-global-tmt-conference-edge-ai-push-93CH-4894482","label":"Ambarella — Citi Global TMT Conference remarks (9 Sep 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/niron-magnetics-marks-steel-raising-at-sartell-manufacturing-site-302875334.html","label":"Niron Magnetics — first steel at Sartell and a Honda investment (10 Sep 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.nidec.com/en/corporate/news/2026/news0910-01/","label":"Nidec — receipt of notification of litigation on derivative action, Kyoto District Court case 1749 of 2026 (10 Sep 2026)"},{"url":"https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/10/rare-earth-stocks-tumble-on-u-s-china-thaw-hopes-usa-rare-earth-sinks-4-mp-materials-drops-5-critical-metals-slips/","label":"24/7 Wall St — rare earths attributed to “U.S.–China thaw hopes” (10 Sep 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.csis.org/programs/trump-xi-2026-summits","label":"CSIS — the 2026 Trump–Xi summits, including the 24 September Washington visit"},{"url":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/09/3358813/0/en/usa-rare-earth-breaks-ground-on-advanced-rare-earth-metal-and-magnet-manufacturing-facility-in-blacksburg-south-carolina.html","label":"USA Rare Earth — groundbreaking at Blacksburg, South Carolina: 6,400 tpa NdFeB, ~$1.2bn (9 Sep 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.mining.com/web/china-rare-earth-firms-halt-some-us-shipments-over-geopolitical-worries-sources-say","label":"Reuters via Mining.com — Chinese rare-earth firms halt some US shipments after the RBA sanctions (4 Sep 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_soars_as_hormuz_risks_rattle_markets-10-sep-2026-184590-article/","label":"Rigzone — Brent +6.3% to $107.63 on Hormuz shipping attacks (10 Sep 2026)"},{"url":"https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/en/nkave","label":"Nikkei Indexes — Nikkei 225 daily close"},{"url":"https://www.finanzen.net/analyse/schaeffler_buy-jefferies_&_company_inc._1106825","label":"Jefferies — Schaeffler target cut to €8.70 from €9.45, Buy retained, analyst Vanessa Jeffriess (23 Sep 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.onvista.de/news/2026/08-05-analyse-flash-jefferies-senkt-ziel-fuer-schaeffler-auf-9-45-euro-buy-0-10-26540026","label":"Jefferies — the earlier Schaeffler cut, €10.45 to €9.45 (5 Aug 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/nebenwerte/schaeffler-stock-falls-2-24-percent-as-jefferies-cuts-target/70169026","label":"Schaeffler −2.24% on the session of the Jefferies cut (23 Sep 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/us-china-extend-trade-truce-trump-rcna599525","label":"NBC News — Bessent: the Busan Agreement extended from 10 November to 10 January (23 Sep 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/us-treasurys-bessent-chinas-he-to-meet-on-unfinished-business-before-trumpxi-summit-4913529","label":"Reuters via Investing.com — Bessent and He Lifeng meet before the summit; truce extension, 11:40 ET (23 Sep 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/asia-rare-earth-stocks-fall-after-uschina-extend-trade-truce-to-january-4914443","label":"Investing.com — Asian rare-earth names fall after the truce extension; Lynas −2% (24 Sep 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-21/china-rare-earth-magnet-exports-to-us-drop-before-xi-trump-meet","label":"Bloomberg — China’s magnet exports to the US fall 21% to 512 t in August, on customs data (21 Sep 2026)"},{"url":"https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104124359-chinas-rare-earth-magnet-exports-down-6-mom-18-yoy-in-august-2026","label":"SMM — China’s total rare-earth magnet exports 5,010 t in August, −6% MoM, −18% YoY"},{"url":"https://www.usagold.com/daily-precious-metals-market-report-september-23-2026/","label":"USAGOLD — hawkish Fed remarks, dollar index back above 100, metals liquidation (23 Sep 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260901419270/en/","label":"Nidec — receipt of the Investigation Committee’s report, publication set for 4 September (2 Sep 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.nidec.com/en/corporate/internal-control-improvement/overview/","label":"Nidec — disclosure of the quality Investigation Report and the company’s response (4 Sep 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.nidec.com/en/corporate/disclosure/quality/","label":"Nidec — response to suspected quality-related misconduct"},{"url":"https://newsonjapan.com/article/150426.php","label":"News On Japan — Nikkei −3.2% on AI selling and bond yields (19 Aug 2026)"},{"url":"https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/18/robotics-stocks-punished-tuesday-in-ai-sell-off-ouster-down-10-aeva-technologies-down-12-symbotic-down-4/","label":"24/7 Wall St — robotics names in the 18 Aug AI selloff"},{"url":"https://strategicmetalsinvest.com/antimony-prices/","label":"Antimony spot price and year-to-date change"},{"url":"https://www.metal.com/rare-earth-oxides/201102250162","label":"Shanghai Metals Market — Pr–Nd oxide benchmark"},{"url":"https://www.eetimes.com/how-nidec-is-rethinking-gear-design-for-humanoid-and-mobile-robots/","label":"EE Times — Nidec gear design for humanoids"},{"url":"https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/this-japanese-stock-is-surging-on-positive-outlook-for-humanoid-robot-orders-4367329","label":"Investing.com — Harmonic Drive humanoid orders"},{"url":"https://finance.biggo.com/news/jpx_tdnet_140120260421507113","label":"JPX/TDnet — Harmonic Drive earnings forecast revision"},{"url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/harmonic-drive-systems-lifts-full-year-earnings-forecast-on-strong-automation-demand","label":"Harmonic Drive — FY3/27 forecast raised to ¥74.5bn / ¥8.5bn (7 Aug 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.mpmaterials.com/news/mp-materials-announces-transformational-public-private-partnership-with-the-department-of-defense-to-accelerate-u-s-rare-earth-magnet-independence/","label":"MP Materials — DoD partnership (Jul 2025)"},{"url":"https://investors.mpmaterials.com/investor-news/news-details/2026/MP-Materials-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx","label":"MP Materials — Q2 2026 results"},{"url":"https://investors.mpmaterials.com/investor-news/news-details/2026/MP-Materials-Selects-Northlake-Texas-as-the-Site-of-10X-a-New-U-S--Rare-Earth-Magnet-Manufacturing-Campus/default.aspx","label":"MP Materials — 10X site selection, ~10,000 t total capacity"},{"url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/10/pentagon-to-become-largest-shareholder-in-rare-earth-magnet-maker-mp-materials.html","label":"CNBC — Pentagon stake in MP Materials"},{"url":"https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/trade-war/trump-tariffs/us-imposes-15-tariff-on-polysilicon-in-pushback-against-china","label":"Nikkei Asia — 15% polysilicon tariff"},{"url":"https://www.mining.com/china-blacklists-mp-materials-usa-rare-earth-in-critical-minerals-war/","label":"MINING.COM — China blacklists MP and USA Rare Earth"},{"url":"https://www.mining.com/usa-rare-earth-brings-forward-commercial-production-plans-by-two-years/","label":"MINING.COM — USA Rare Earth pulls timeline forward"},{"url":"https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/USAR/pressreleases/36563055/usa-rare-earth-achieves-major-operational-and-strategic-milestone-with-commissioning-of-phase-1a-magnet-production-at-stillwater-facility/","label":"USA Rare Earth — Stillwater Phase 1a commissioning"},{"url":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/10/3342269/0/en/usa-rare-earth-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results.html","label":"USA Rare Earth — Q2 2026 results, cash position, CEO transition"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001970622/000121390026086814/ea0301206-8k_usarare.htm","label":"USA Rare Earth — 8-K, TMRC acquisition closing (7 Aug 2026)"},{"url":"https://investors.usare.com/news-releases/news-release-details/usa-rare-earth-announces-definitive-agreement-acquire-serra","label":"USA Rare Earth — Serra Verde definitive agreement"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1970622/000121390026092810/ea030292401ex99-1.htm","label":"USA Rare Earth — 8-K, $1.55bn SPV capitalisation for Serra Verde offtake (24 Aug 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/13/mp-materials-mp-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/","label":"The Motley Fool — MP Materials Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (gadolinium deal)"},{"url":"https://lynasrareearths.com/us-project-updates/","label":"Lynas — US project updates"},{"url":"https://rare-earth-mining.com/lynas-rare-earths-results-q3-fy26/","label":"Lynas — Q3 FY26 record revenue"},{"url":"https://rareearthexchanges.com/news/lynas-fy26-profit-hre-capex-escalation/","label":"Lynas — FY26 results and heavy rare-earth capex escalation (26 Aug 2026)"},{"url":"https://rareearthexchanges.com/news/lynas-texas-project-in-limbo-amid-u-s-america-first-shift/","label":"Rare Earth Exchanges — Lynas Texas project status"},{"url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/miner-perpetua-resources-secures-2point9-billion-us-loan-for-idaho-gold-antimony-project.html","label":"CNBC — Perpetua secures $2.9bn EXIM loan"},{"url":"https://www.mining.com/perpetua-starts-building-1-3b-stibnite-gold-antimony-mine/","label":"MINING.COM — Perpetua breaks ground at Stibnite"},{"url":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/NVX/novonix-us-103-million-48c-tax-credits-certified-for-synthetic-9kepfx8eb4ct.html","label":"Novonix — $103m 48C tax credits certified"},{"url":"https://www.novonixgroup.com/news/novonix-to-divest-non-core-business-to-focus-on-synthetic-graphite/","label":"Novonix — divesting non-core business"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001859795/000119312526345642/nvx-ex99_1.htm","label":"Novonix — 6-K, one-for-ten ADS ratio change for Nasdaq compliance (12 Aug 2026)"},{"url":"https://ir.novonixgroup.com/financial-information/asx-announcements","label":"Novonix — ASX half-year accounts and Appendix 4D, going-concern material uncertainty (31 Aug 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/niron-magnetics-receives-conditional-150-million-department-of-war-commitment-302846367.html","label":"Niron Magnetics — $150m Department of War commitment"},{"url":"https://www.northernnewsnow.com/2026/08/08/pentagon-invests-150m-minnesota-magnet-company-niron-magnetics/","label":"Northern News Now — Niron Sartell plant"},{"url":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CODI/arnold-magnetic-technologies-announces-new-usa-rare-earth-e3ux5o4jp3tv.html","label":"Arnold Magnetic — USA Rare Earth distribution agreement"},{"url":"https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CODI/compass-diversified-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-0y129wl1vqw5.html","label":"Compass Diversified — Q2 2026 results, Sterno sale, Arnold segment, CEO transition"},{"url":"https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/17/compass-diversified-codi-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/","label":"The Motley Fool — Compass Diversified Q2 2026 earnings call transcript"},{"url":"https://ir.compassdiversified.com/news-releases/news-release-details/compass-diversified-completes-restatement-previously-issued","label":"Compass Diversified — completion of restatement"},{"url":"https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/compass-diversified-files-restated-financials-after-lugano-fraud-93CH-4395663","label":"Investing.com — CODI restated financials after Lugano fraud"},{"url":"https://www.baincapital.com/news/bain-capital-led-consortium-announces-successful-close-tender-offer-hitachi-metals-common","label":"Bain Capital — Hitachi Metals tender offer close"},{"url":"https://www.marklines.com/en/news/277915","label":"MarkLines — Hitachi Metals renamed Proterial"},{"url":"https://product.tdk.com/en/products/magnet/index.html","label":"TDK — magnet product range"},{"url":"https://rare-earth-mining.com/tdk-rare-earth-magnets/","label":"TDK as an NdFeB manufacturer — profile"},{"url":"https://www.scmp.com/news/us/politics/article/3361267/trump-order-targets-china-linked-military-mineral-supply-chains","label":"SCMP — defence mineral supply chain order"},{"url":"https://www.csis.org/analysis/new-executive-order-ties-us-critical-minerals-security-global-partnerships","label":"CSIS — critical minerals executive order analysis"},{"url":"https://rareearthexchanges.com/news/china-rare-earth-industry-association-reports-267-0-index-as-ndpr-prices-retreat/","label":"Rare Earth Exchanges — China price index, Aug 2026"},{"url":"https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/012726-rare-earth-supply-bottlenecks-set-to-persist-in-2026","label":"S&P Global — rare earth supply bottlenecks 2026"},{"url":"https://rareearthexchanges.com/news/humanoids-are-entering-the-hype-peak-and-china-controls-the-magnets-that-make-them-move/","label":"Rare Earth Exchanges — humanoids and magnet control"},{"url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4922005-remx-rare-earth-exposure-is-only-one-half-and-all-is-not-well-on-the-other-half","label":"Seeking Alpha — REMX composition analysis"},{"url":"https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/rare-earth-strategic-metals-etf-remx/","label":"VanEck — REMX holdings & performance"},{"url":"https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/%5EN225","label":"Yahoo Finance — Nikkei 225 chart data, checked against index closes each run"},{"url":"https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/1321.T","label":"Yahoo Finance — Nomura Nikkei 225 ETF (1321.T), used to cross-check the index print"},{"url":"https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/1330.T","label":"Yahoo Finance — Nikko Nikkei 225 ETF (1330.T), the second cross-check on the index print"},{"url":"https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/japans-benchmark-bond-yield-rises-to-3-for-first-time-in-30-years-4883532","label":"Reuters — Japan’s 10-year JGB yield reaches 3%, first since 1996 (1 Sep 2026)"},{"url":"https://newschannel9.com/news/local/novonix-backs-off-land-purchase-next-to-chattanooga-plant-slows-production-ramp-up-riverside-synthetic-graphite-panasonic-battery-materials-175-acres","label":"Novonix — land purchase dropped and Riverside ramp slowed, per the half-year report"},{"url":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/03/3356244/23306/en/ambarella-inc-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-year-2027-financial-results.html","label":"Ambarella — Q2 FY2027 financial results (3 Sep 2026)"},{"url":"https://newsonjapan.com/article/150650.php","label":"News On Japan — Nikkei +2.12% to 66,399.84 on a chip-led rebound (7 Sep 2026)"},{"url":"https://sundayguardianlive.com/business/japan-stock-market-today-september-8-nikkei-225-gains-04-while-topix-falls-06-check-why-boj-rate-hike-bets-and-stronger-yen-are-driving-markets-279813/","label":"Sunday Guardian — the mid-session 8 September Nikkei figure corrected in the claim audit"},{"url":"https://sundayguardianlive.com/business/nikkei-225-falls-today-september-14-japanese-benchmark-drops-17-amid-ai-safety-fears-and-oil-price-surge-check-top-falling-stocks-and-key-reasons-284322/","label":"Sunday Guardian — the mid-session 14 September Nikkei figure corrected in the claim audit"},{"url":"https://www.brecorder.com/news/40439387/japans-nikkei-slumps-as-ai-leaders-raise-safety-concerns-topix-gains","label":"Business Recorder — Reuters Japan wrap, 14 Sep 2026: the Topix/Nikkei split, and a second morning index level"},{"url":"https://aktienkurs-orderbuch.finanznachrichten.de/sha0.htm","label":"FinanzNachrichten — Schaeffler Xetra order book, used for the 7 September close"},{"url":"https://www.finanzen.net/historische-kurse/schaeffler","label":"finanzen.net — Schaeffler daily price history, cross-check for the German feed gaps"},{"url":"https://note.com/kabuya66/n/nc4dd1543fdfc?hl=en","label":"Yaskawa FY2026 earnings commentary"},{"url":"https://note.com/yama_shukatsu/n/nfd0ea20c5e8b?hl=en-US","label":"Nabtesco FY2025 results breakdown"},{"url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm","label":"Federal Reserve — FOMC statement, 16 Sep 2026: first hike since 2023, to 3.75–4.00%"},{"url":"https://www.bbntimes.com/financial/nikkei-225-today-tokyo-shut-for-respect-for-the-aged-day-leaving-index-at-65-018-95-after-boj-fuelled-rally","label":"Nikkei 225 at 65,018.95 after the Bank of Japan decision, and Tokyo shut for the holiday run"},{"url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/21/greenland-trump-denmark-deal-stocks-mining.html","label":"CNBC — US-listed Greenland names surge after the Denmark security deal (21 Sep 2026)"},{"url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/19/trump-says-us-has-permanent-control-of-greenland-security-does-it","label":"Al Jazeera — what the Greenland security agreement does and does not cover"},{"url":"https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/09/21/critical-metals-surges-25-as-greenland-security-pact-puts-tanbreez-rare-earth-permit-in-focus-usa-rare-earth-climbs-6-mp-materials-rises-4/","label":"24/7 Wall St — the intraday USAR and MP figures corrected in the claim audit"},{"url":"https://blockonomi.com/usa-rare-earth-usar-stock-surges-9-despite-zero-greenland-operations/","label":"The USAR-has-no-Greenland-assets point, made contemporaneously"}],"weeklyCloses":{"note":"Weekly closing prices in each listing’s own currency, oldest first, one point per ISO week, bucketed by exchange-local date. Keys are the tickers used elsewhere in this 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one — humanoid component suppliers","thesis":"Humanoid component suppliers: the gearboxes, motors, actuators and vision silicon every assembler buys.","companies":6,"listed":6,"names":["Harmonic Drive Systems","Nabtesco","Yaskawa Electric","Nidec","Schaeffler","Ambarella"],"medianYearChange":27,"medianOffHigh":-29.4},{"tier":2,"label":"Tier two — rare earth and critical minerals","thesis":"Rare earth and critical minerals: an upstream policy trade, ordered by proximity to the magnet. Adjacent to robotics, not the same exposure.","companies":5,"listed":5,"names":["MP Materials","USA Rare Earth","Lynas Rare Earths","Perpetua Resources","Novonix"],"medianYearChange":-12.2,"medianOffHigh":-50.8},{"tier":3,"label":"Tier three — the magnet layer","thesis":"The magnet layer between the mine and the motor, and the hardest to own: most of it is private.","companies":7,"listed":3,"names":["MP Materials","TDK","Aichi Steel","Arnold Magnetic","Proterial","Niron Magnetics","Noveon Magnetics"],"medianYearChange":26.8,"medianOffHigh":-50.8}]}